Markets took some heat last week as PCE inflation came in hotter than expected at a three-year high, pushing 2026 rate-hike odds higher. $SPCX sold off hard, testing under $150 for the first time on news of a $20b bond sale. $MU crushed earnings and guided well above estimates, but higher memory prices sent ripples through the tech sector. $AAPL announced price hikes for Macs and iPads, causing the stock to dump along with the rest of the Mag 7. By the end of the week, capital rotated out of semis and into defensives, with healthcare ($XLV) and utilities ($XLU) leading, while crypto and metals continued to fall. In other news:
Looking ahead, it’s a short week with markets closed Friday for Independence Day. $NKE steps up to report earnings, and traders will also be watching the ADP employment report and the unemployment rate. With markets cooling off, let’s see how the charts are setting up.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
$SPY ended the week lower at $728.99 (-2.38%), with the MACD curling toward a bearish crossover on the weekly. However, price bounced clean off the 21-week EMA, keeping the long-term uptrend intact. If $SPY fails to hold this support, momentum could start turning bearish.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
$QQQ got hit the hardest last week, closing at $706.52 (-4.60%) as semis and the Mag 7 drove it lower. The ETF is holding at the 9-week EMA, with the 21-week EMA sitting just below as additional support. With the CNN Fear & Greed Index at extreme fear (25), this is the kind of setup contrarian bulls watch for.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
$IWM outperformed this week, closing near a new all-time high at $299.83 (+1.43%) as small-caps continue to shrug off rate-hike fears. Price is trending well above the 9/21 weekly EMA cloud, with the MACD showing no signs of slowing. Are small-caps telling us a rate hike is already baked in?
Earnings
Notable Results
CBRS (Cerebras Systems)
- EPS: ($0.04) vs ($0.16) est
- REV: $193.40M vs $180.81M est
MU (Micron Technology)
- EPS: $25.11 vs $20.20 est
- REV: $41.45B vs $35.01B est
CCL (Carnival Corporation)
- EPS: $0.41 vs $0.34 est
- REV: $6.66B vs $6.68B est
SNX (TD SYNNEX)
- EPS: $4.85 vs $4.10 est
- REV: $19.57B vs $16.79B est
MKC (McCormick & Company)
- EPS: $0.80 vs $0.70 est
- REV: $1.93B vs $1.91B est
FDX (FedEx)
- EPS: $6.31 vs $5.94 est
- REV: $25.00B vs $24.05B est
MLKN (MillerKnoll)
- EPS: $0.55 vs $0.52 est
- REV: $1.00B vs $974.40M est
AYI (Acuity Brands)
- EPS: $5.31 vs $5.12 est
- REV: $1.19B vs $1.17B est
FUL (H.B. Fuller)
- EPS: $1.41 vs $1.37 est
- REV: $950.27M vs $924.90M est
CMC (Commercial Metals Company)
- EPS: $1.73 vs $1.70 est
- REV: $2.48B vs $2.40B est
WS (Worthington Steel)
- EPS: $0.74 vs $0.73 est
- REV: $929.20M vs $992.00M est
PAYX (Paychex)
- EPS: $1.32 vs $1.31 est
- REV: $1.60B vs $1.60B est
ICLR (Icon plc)
- EPS: $2.50 vs $2.50 est
- REV: $2.03B vs $1.99B est
KBH (KB Home)
- EPS: $0.43 vs $0.45 est
- REV: $1.11B vs $1.08B est
WOR (Worthington Enterprises)
- EPS: $0.97 vs $1.06 est
- REV: $371.45M vs $386.33M est
JEF (Jefferies Financial Group)
- EPS: $1.03 vs $1.21 est
- REV: $2.20B vs $2.28B est
What’s Happening Now
MU Micron
Micron delivered a blockbuster 84.9% gross margin for Q3 while taking the tech giant crown from NVDA’s recently-reported 75%. However, unprecedented upstream profitability for the memory semiconductor sector has downstream consequences. As storage costs skyrocket, tech giants are now feeling the squeeze. AAPL just announced a significant price raise for Macbooks and iPads this week, pushing its stock down nearly 7%, while MSFT also raised Xbox prices. Ultimately, MU’s historic margins are now being funded at the expense of everyday consumers.
AAPL Apple
While the tech giant has slid nearly 12% from its June high, next month shows exceptional seasonality for a prospective shift. Over the past 15Y, AAPL has recorded a 94% win-rate for July with a +7% average return. The bullish setup aligns with its upcoming July 30th earnings as it aims to extend a 13-quarter streak of revenue beats, supported by a recent wave of analyst price target hikes spanning as high as $400.
XBI S&P Biotech
While the broader market reshuffles, the Biotech sector is quietly up nearly 15% this month. At its shareholder meeting this week, Nvidia’s CEO announced a new suite of AI-fueled drug discovery tools that could potentially ignite the industry. Key holdings such as MRNA have fueled the near-term rally after the FDA voted unanimously to recommend its flu vaccine. In addition, M&A activity boomed this week as giant AbbVie (ABBV) announced a $10.9 billion takeover of Apogee (APGE) to boost its immunology pipeline.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into August 17th: Quiet New Highs