Markets whipsawed last week as the Iran peace deal was officially signed, Kevin Warsh’s hawkish FOMC debut brought markets down Wednesday, and energy names dumped. $SPY gapped up big Monday on Trump’s Iran deal announcement, but the FOMC on Wednesday erased most of those gains. Thursday saw a recovery as the deal was officially signed, sending energy names and oil tumbling. Trump also announced $AAPL has agreed to manufacture chips with $INTC in the U.S., pushing semi stocks higher. In other news:
Looking ahead, traders will be watching PCE inflation data, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and a key input to future rate decisions. $MU also reports earnings, which will move memory and semi names. Let’s see how the charts look going into this week:
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
$SPY ended the week higher at $746.74 (+1.36%), bouncing clean off the 50-day EMA. It gapped up Monday, then filled the gap during the FOMC selloff. With a bearish Put/Call Ratio at 1.61, weak Trend Strength Candles, and the TTM squeeze squeezing, the 50-day EMA is the key level for bulls to hold.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
$QQQ ended the week higher at $740.62 (+2.67%), driven largely by semis. Its Put/Call Ratio at 1.14 is the lowest of the three indexes, though volume on this bounce has been light. With $MU carrying a 5.26% weighting in the index and a tight TTM squeeze active, earnings could move QQQ in either direction.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
$IWM closed the week at $295.59 (+3.53%), the strongest of the three indexes for the second week running. The 50-day EMA has held twice on solid volume, though momentum remains neutral. The Put/Call Ratio at 3.08 is the highest of the three indexes and the clearest bearish flag on the chart.
Earnings
Notable Results
SB (Safe Bulkers)
- EPS: $0.18 vs $0.11 est
- REV: $74.390M vs $65.500M est
HITI (High Tide)
- EPS: $0.01 vs ($0.02) est
- REV: $130.731M vs $124.360M est
RFIL (RF Industries)
- EPS: $0.14 vs $0.09 est
- REV: $20.691M vs $19.667M est
AIOT (Powerfleet)
- EPS: $0.04 vs $0.02 est
- REV: $114.490M vs $112.970M est
SWBI (Smith & Wesson Brands)
- EPS: $0.36 vs $0.23 est
- REV: $178.388M vs $155.269M est
CGC (Canopy Growth)
- EPS: ($0.29) vs ($0.06) est
- REV: $51.947M vs $53.260M est
LZB (La-Z-Boy)
- EPS: $1.26 vs $0.82 est
- REV: $570.338M vs $569.226M est
JBL (Jabil)
- EPS: $3.16 vs $3.09 est
- REV: $8.751B vs $8.635B est
WLY (John Wiley & Sons)
- EPS: $1.67 vs $1.65 est
- REV: $447.941M vs $450.000M est
ACN (Accenture)
- EPS: $3.80 vs $3.71 est
- REV: $18.700B vs $18.753B est
KR (Kroger)
- EPS: $1.58 vs $1.59 est
- REV: $46.121B vs $45.385B est
KMX (CarMax)
- EPS: $1.31 vs $0.94 est
- REV: $8.014B vs $7.455B est
PLAY (Dave & Buster’s)
- EPS: $0.22 vs $0.60 est
- REV: $559.200M vs $578.283M est
What’s Happening Now
SPY S&P 500
Warsh just oversaw the steepest ‘First Fed Day’ sell-off in modern history, spooking markets with a hawkish debut presser focused on stricter inflation control. Yet, initial reactions rarely dictate long-term trends. All recent chairs delivered positive SPX returns yet their variance is huge. From Bernanke’s 4.2% annualized grind through the Great Recession, to Volcker’s 15.5% boom after crushing 1980s inflation, Warsh’ tougher medicine may be similarly beneficial for extended market health at the expense of near-term volatility.
SNDK SanDisk
SanDisk has charted astronomical 5,000%+ returns over the last year, leading exceptional gains for the broad memory sector. Fueled by AI-driven shortages, Apple CEO Tim Cook said this week that soaring memory chip costs will be passed on to consumers. With analysts projecting hard capacity constraints stretching into 2028, and major producers like Seagate already warning they cannot meet demand, SNDK has locked in lucrative long-term contracts while gaining significant leverage over the semiconductor supply chain.
WFC Wells Fargo
Backed by 15 years of data, WFC enters next week with an 80% seasonal win-rate. Financials have shown relative strength this month, with XLF climbing nearly 4% alongside an impressive 6% gain for WFC. Fundamentally, Wells Fargo’s CEO recently noted new growth potential as the Fed lifted a long-standing $1.95T cap on the bank’s total assets (stemming from consumer protection issues flagged in 2018). The regulatory pivot now allows the bank to freely expand its balance sheet, actively capture new deposit inflows, and scale its lending operations.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
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