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07/21/2021 |

TrendSpider in Forbes: Bitcoin’s Short-Term Descent

Things continue to take a turn for the worse as far as Bitcoin ($BTC) is concerned- at least in the short term. Next month, August, holds one of the lowest win rates of the year (20%) according to the coin’s seasonality* which may have some traders worrisome as $BTC’s most recent formation indicates aspects of a descending triangle.

TrendSpider’s Jake Wajustyk was asked by Forbes to give his take on this price action:

There definitely is a descending triangle on the daily chart. This is generally looked at as a bearish continuation pattern but can break to the upside in some cases. If the descending triangle starts to break down through the previous lows, market participants should watch for a move down to the Covid-crash anchored VWAP, below around $26,500. If the descending triangle breaks out to the upside, market participants should watch for a move up to test the “all-time high anchored VWAP” around $42,000.

$BTC daily and weekly charts.

Based on Bitcoin’s seasonality over the last 5 years shown on TrendSpider, August has one of the lowest win rates of the year at 20%. This means that since 2016, only 1 of 5 August monthly closes has been higher than the July close. A combination of the bearish technical setup and low win rate for August would suggest a move further down rather than up into the rest of the 3rd quarter.

Seasonality bar chart for ^BTCUSD.

Read the full Forbes article here.