October was a volatile month across the board. Earnings season kicked off and the federal government managed to avoid a shutdown. Bonds and Treasuries hit multi-year lows and highs, respectively. Oil pulled back after surging for most of Q3 while gold and crypto ripped higher. Perhaps most importantly, global tensions elevated after terrorist attacks in Israel.The IWM bore the brunt of the downside move, but SPY and QQQ took their hits, as well, especially in the back half of the month. All in, it was the worst October for stocks in five years, but November ushers in some of the most positive Seasonality expectations of the year. Let’s dig into the individual charts and see where things landed!
Monthly Analysis
In October, the SPY ETF closed at $418.20 (-2.17%), breaking down below the long-term rising trend line but finding support right at the volume Point of Control from the Covid low as well as the 20-month SMA. With November comes a 91% win rate over the past decade.
In October, the QQQ ETF closed at $350.87 (-2.07%), finding nearly perfect support at the downward-sloping trendline from the all-time high. The 10-month SMA provided additional support, as well. Now, the critical level to gain is the Point of Control from the Covid low.
In October, the IWM ETF closed at $164.52 (-6.91%), making it the weakest performer of the group. It put in a three-year low, breaking below the bottom of the symmetrical triangle and the Point of Control from the Covid low. This index found support just above its 100-month SMA.
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming