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12/01/2023 |

November Market Update: Bulls Fire Back

If there’s one thing that can be said about November, it’s that the bulls were in total control. Despite seasonality foreshadowing this move, pessimistic bears were caught completely offside as three months of lethargic, choppy drawdown were erased in a single candle! The SPY and QQQ are a mere 5% from their all-time highs, a feat many would have scoffed at just several weeks ago. Additionally, the VIX, a measure of market volatility, dipped to multi-year lows. Did Powell do the impossible and achieve a ‘soft landing’? Only time will tell. Let’s dig into the individual names and see where things ended up!

Monthly Analysis

The SPY ETF closed the month at $456.40 (+9.13%), finding support at the aVWAP from the all-time high before swiftly reversing the previous three months’ worth of price action. This index is now trading just above the long-term descending trendline that it’s been stuck below since the July high.

This is a monthly chart of the SPY index.

The QQQ ETF was the strongest performing index in November, closing the month at $388.83 (+10.82%). The aVWAP from the March low acted as near-perfect support, and the price quickly managed to regain the PoC and close above the descending trendline from the all-time high. 

This is a monthly chart of the QQQ index.

Despite not being as far along as its counterparts, the IWM ETF put in a huge month, closing at $179.66 (+9.20%). After making a new multi-year low in October, the price swiftly reversed, regaining the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern and the PoC from the all-time high, closing right at the aVWAP from the summer high.

This is a monthly chart of the IWM index.