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09/01/2023 |

Market Update Into September 5th: Weak Seasonality Has Arrived

After five months of seemingly unrelenting strength, August found markets taking a much-needed breather.  The SPY and the QQQ made new monthly lows relative to July’s lows, while the IWM went inside, suggesting further consolidation was necessary for the struggling index.

Now that August is behind us, we are entering September, which has been the weakest month of the year for all three major indices over the past decade. Will the seasonal trend of weakness persist this year, or will that trend be bucked? Let’s dig into the charts and see!

Monthly Analysis

This month, the SPY ETF closed at $450.35 (-1.62%), making a new low relative to last month’s low, but closing well above it. The upper Bollinger Band lies just above the price, which could act as resistance in the future, and momentum remains bullish. The Unusual Options indicator highlights a call wall at $440.

This is a monthly chart of the SPY index.

This month, the QQQ ETF closed at $377.99 (-1.48%), making it the strongest performer of the group, but much like the SPY, made a new monthly low relative to last month’s low. The price is trading just below the upper Bollinger Band and momentum is bullish. The Unusual Options indicator highlights a put wall at $358. 

This is a monthly chart of the QQQ index.

This month, the IWM ETF closed at $188.61 (-5.06%), making it the weakest performer of the group. This index went inside on the month and found support at the middle Bollinger Band. The recent bullish MACD cross suggests positive momentum, and the Unusual Options indicator highlights a call wall at $186.

This is a monthly chart of the IWM index.


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