Market Update Into September 29th: Inflation Creeping Up

The markets maintained their bullish trend last week, with a GDP revision to the upside and existing home sales helping to offset weak seasonality. Inflation-sensitive assets caught a bid as PCE ticked higher, with silver rallying more than 8% on the week. While $MU and $COST both beat earnings expectations, crypto markets lost ground as significant ETF outflows pointed to rising caution in risk-on assets.

• Costco Beats Earnings
• Qualcomm AI Breakout
• Micron’s AI Momentum
• Intel Lands Deals

Looking ahead, traders will be watching key labor market data and a fresh consumer confidence reading. While September defied its typical seasonal weakness, October has a bearish track record of its own. To add to the fire, a potential government shutdown next week could shake the markets, leaving traders wondering how long the bullish momentum will remain intact. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY ended the week mostly unchanged at $661.82 (-0.27%), continuing to hold above key support. Price has bounced several times off the Short line of the Dynamo Cloud Indicator, a trend-following tool that combines volatility-adjusted moving averages with momentum to visualize trend direction and strength. If SPY remains above the green cloud, bulls may be eyeing the next major target near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

QQQ fell slightly to $595.97 (-0.56%), holding up well even as inflation-sensitive assets like gold and silver posted strong gains. The ETF has repeatedly found support at the Long line of the Dynamo Cloud Indicator, signaling that bullish momentum remains intact. With tech holding firm amid shifting macro currents, traders are left wondering whether inflation risk is already priced in or if pressure is quietly building under the surface.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

IWM was the weakest of the major indexes this week, closing at $241.34 (-0.66%). Despite leading the decline, the small-cap ETF didn’t even retest the Short line of the Dynamo Cloud, underscoring the strength of its recent uptrend. The trend remains bullish, but reclaiming resistance near the recent all-time highs will be critical for small-cap bulls to maintain momentum.

Earnings

Notable Results

BB (BlackBerry)

• EPS: $0.04 vs $0.01 est
• REV: $129.60M vs $123.22M est

THO (Thor Industries)

• EPS: $2.36 vs $1.20 est
• REV: $2.52B vs $2.32B est

SCS (Steelcase)

• EPS: $0.45 vs $0.37 est
• REV: $891.10M vs $873.98M est

SNX (TD SYNNEX)

• EPS: $3.58 vs $2.98 est
• REV: $15.65B vs $15.12B est

JBL (Jabil)

• EPS: $3.29 vs $2.89 est
• REV: $8.25B vs $7.67B est

AIR (AAR Corp.)

• EPS: $1.08 vs $0.98 est
• REV: $739.60M vs $687.97M est

MU (Micron Technology)

• EPS: $3.03 vs $2.79 est
• REV: $11.32B vs $11.16B est

KBH (KB Home)

• EPS: $1.61 vs $1.50 est
• REV: $1.62B vs $1.59B est

WS (Worthington Steel)

• EPS: $0.77 vs $0.72 est
• REV: $872.90M vs $736.00M est

ACN (Accenture)

• EPS: $3.03 vs $2.97 est
• REV: $17.60B vs $17.34B est

FUL (H.B. Fuller)

• EPS: $1.26 vs $1.24 est
• REV: $892.04M vs $893.12M est

COST (Costco Wholesale)

• EPS: $5.87 vs $5.81 est
• REV: $86.16B vs $86.11B est

CTAS (Cintas)

• EPS: $1.20 vs $1.19 est
• REV: $2.72B vs $2.70B est

WOR (Worthington Enterprises)

• EPS: $0.74 vs $0.74 est
• REV: $303.71M vs $299.87M est

AZO (AutoZone)

• EPS: $48.71 vs $50.86 est
• REV: $6.24B vs $6.24B est

KMX (CarMax)

• EPS: $0.64 vs $1.03 est
• REV: $6.59B vs $7.03B est

UEC (Uranium Energy)

• EPS: $(0.06) vs $(0.04) est
• REV: $0.00 vs $17.00M est

What’s Happening Now

COST Costco
Costco closed its fiscal year on a high note, posting its 21st beat in 23 quarters. Revenue climbed 8.1% to $86.2B while EPS hit $5.87, lifted by resilient comps and record membership economics. Renewal rates above 92% and fee income surging 14% highlight the power of Costco’s model, though its lofty 61x P/E leaves little margin for error.

UNH UnitedHealth Group
UNH heads into its strongest seasonal stretch as October and November deliver win rates of 70% and 75% as heavyweight bets reinforce that backdrop. Warren Buffett added about 5M shares, Michael Burry built equity and call positions, and David Tepper’s Appaloosa made UNH its second-largest holding. The setup frames Q4 as a pivotal test of conviction.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!