Markets absorbed the Fed’s first rate cut of 2025 last week, trimming 25bps to 4–4.25%. Stocks rallied, with QQQ up 1.85% and SPY at new highs, while the VIX held near 15. Bond yields, however, edged higher, reflecting skepticism over further easing. Earnings from FDX, GIS, and DRI topped forecasts, and in the world of crypto, the debut of the first U.S. XRP ETF set volume records even as BTC slipped after the Fed cut.
Looking ahead, a lighter calendar puts the focus on jobless claims and Fed commentary for clues on the pace of cuts. September’s seasonal weakness could test record equity levels, while crypto faces the challenge of converting institutional validation into sustained momentum. Let’s see how the charts are setting up.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
SPY ended the week at a record $663.70 (+0.62%). The RSI Ensemble shows slightly oversold conditions, a setup that has often preceded brief pullbacks. The Polymarket Indicator is showing 65% odds of two additional cuts before year-end, raising the question of whether easing can push toward $700 or if consolidation comes first.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
QQQ led the major indexes, closing at a new high of $599.35 (+1.85%). The RSI Ensemble is now leaning overbought, suggesting that internals may be becoming stretched even as price grinds higher. Tech leadership is intact, but extended readings could make the next phase of the rally more volatile.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
IWM climbed to $242.98 (+1.58%), its first record close in nearly a year. The breakout follows the Fed’s 25bps cut, a meaningful tailwind for rate-sensitive small caps. If the move holds, the group may continue to outpace larger peers into year-end.
Earnings
Notable Results
FDX (FedEx Corporation)
- EPS: $3.83 vs $3.63 est
- REV: $22.24B vs $21.71B est
CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store)
- EPS: $0.74 vs $0.77 est
- REV: $6.0B vs $5.9B est
GIS (General Mills)
- EPS: $0.86 vs $0.81 est
- REV: $4.52B vs $4.51B est
FDS (FactSet)
- EPS: $4.05 vs $4.14 est
- REV: $596.90M vs $593.08M est
PLAY (Dave & Buster’s Entertainment)
- EPS: $0.40 vs $0.90 est
- REV: $557.41B vs $562.39B est
MANU (Manchester United)
- EPS: $(0.04) vs $(0.06) est
- REV: $219.04M vs $225.80M est
FERG (Ferguson plc)
- EPS: $3.48 vs $3.01 est
- REV: $8.50B vs $8.42B est
LEN (Lennar)
- EPS: $2.00 vs $2.10 est
- REV: $8.81B vs $9.05B est
What’s Happening Now
INTC Intel
NVIDIA’s $5B investment in Intel signals a rare alignment between former rivals. The partnership combines NVIDIA’s AI expertise with Intel’s x86 platform to strengthen U.S. infrastructure. With the government and SoftBank also taking large stakes, Intel now has fresh capital and strategic support. It’s time to see if this momentum translates into real execution.
SPY S&P 500
SPY heads into its weakest stretch of the year. Next week has delivered losses 71% of the time with an average drop of 1.1%, the lowest seasonal reading across the calendar over the past 15 years. The good news is that strength typically returns in October and November, when win rates climb back to 67–80% for a year-end rally.
SPY S&P 500
Powell called the 25 bps cut “risk-management” as jobs cooled and inflation stayed elevated, stressing policy is data-dependent and not a rapid easing cycle. Historically, 25bps cuts have boosted the S&P 500 with +0.8% one-week and +8.5% one-year forward returns. Still, weak September seasonality remains a headwind, tempering the near-term outlooks.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming