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09/15/2023 |

Market Update Into September 18th: CPI, PPI, and Triple Witching!

We are now at the halfway point of September, and markets appear to be teetering on the edge of another directional move. Though CPI data came in slightly hotter than expected mid-week, participants seemed to shrug it off. However, by Friday, bulls had lost control of the ball and all three indexes managed to close more than 1% lower than they had the previous day.

Of note, also, is the fact that we are heading into what have historically been the weakest weeks of the year for the indexes, so if the markets are going to continue lower, it would make sense for that to happen now. Let’s dig into the individual names and see how things are looking.

Weekly Analysis

This week, the SPY ETF closed at $443.37 (-0.48%), nearly going inside for a second week in a row and failing at the downward-sloping trendline from the July highs. The August low aVWAP and Point of Control from the May low are currently acting as support, but if they fail, this index could look to test the August lows and potentially even the Fair Value Gap near $425. Unusual options positioning currently looks put heavy into October.

This is a weekly chart of the SPY index.

This week, the QQQ ETF closed at $370.81 (-0.48%), going inside for the second week in a row and finding perfect support at the Point of Control from the April lows. Below lies the aVWAP from the August lows, and if these levels fail, the price could test the August lows and perhaps even the Fair Value Gap, around $345. Unusual options positioning into October looks mixed.

This is a weekly chart of the QQQ index.
This week, the IWM ETF closed at $183.61 (-0.17%), making it the strongest performer of the group. It found resistance at the Point of Control from the March lows and support at the aVWAP from the March lows. If this index is to continue lower in the weeks to come, traders should keep an eye on the low-volume nodes around $180. Unusual options positioning looks put heavy into October.

This is a weekly chart of the IWM index.


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