Market Update Into September 14th: Rate Hike Incoming?

3 mins read

Markets turned bearish last week after CPI and PPI inflation data came in either hotter than expected or in line, pushing the odds of a rate hike next week above 85%. Oil added fuel to the fire, with futures surging past $100 per barrel as geopolitical tensions intensified and strengthened the case for a hike. $ADBE and $ORCL both beat earnings estimates but failed to gain traction as inflation and rate-hike fears dominated the tape. Equities and bonds sold off, but semiconductors $SMH showed relative strength and led all sectors, finishing barely green alongside energy $XLE. In other news:

Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Fed. Kevin Warsh will deliver the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, with policymakers set to either raise rates or hold them steady. Prediction markets and the CME FedWatch Tool are pricing in more than an 85% chance of a hike, setting the stage for a sharp market reaction. Let’s see how the charts are setting up:

Weekly Analysis

$SPY sold off last week, closing at $764.29 (-0.77%) as its Bollinger Bands tightened and a TTM Squeeze loaded on the daily chart. Price broke below the middle Bollinger Band, while Trend Strength Candles flashed their most bearish reading for the first time since March 2026. With SPY coiled for a major move, this week’s FOMC rate decision could pull the trigger.

$QQQ held up best last week, closing just below its middle Bollinger Band at $714.88 (-0.57%). Its Trend Strength Candles are painting orange, a less bearish signal than $SPY as semiconductors and tech led the market. Price is now sitting directly on a high-volume node, making it the key battleground for the next major move.

Rate-sensitive $IWM took the biggest hit last week, closing at $288.89 (-2.41%) as rate-hike odds surged and price tested its lower Bollinger Band. The ETF is breaking below a high-volume node, while Trend Strength Candles continue to signal bearish momentum. The July 31 low is the bulls’ line in the sand ahead of this week’s FOMC decision, with a successful defense setting up a double bottom.

Notable Results

Notable Results

NAVN (Navan)

EPS: $0.05 vs $0.01 est
REV: $232.790M vs $220.366M est

GME (GameStop)

EPS: $0.27 vs $0.06 est
REV: $790.200M vs — est

AVAV (AeroVironment)

EPS: $0.59 vs $0.24 est
REV: $480.490M vs $458.454M est

TTAN (ServiceTitan)

EPS: $0.4 vs $0.26 est
REV: $292.756M vs $285.796M est

CNM (Core & Main)

EPS: $0.94 vs $0.81 est
REV: $2.145B vs $2.146B est

SUNB (Sunbelt Rentals)

EPS: $1.18 vs $1.02 est
REV: $3.115B vs $2.984B est

ORCL (Oracle)

EPS: $1.92 vs $1.67 est
REV: $19.345B vs $19.129B est

M (Macy’s)

EPS: $0.4 vs $0.35 est
REV: $4.866B vs $4.774B est

SAIL (SailPoint)

EPS: $0.09 vs $0.08 est
REV: $308.813M vs $310.287M est

CASY (Casey’s General Stores)

EPS: $7.37 vs $6.77 est
REV: $5.678B vs $5.574B est

KFY (Korn Ferry)

EPS: $1.43 vs $1.36 est
REV: $764.622M vs $737.131M est

ADBE (Adobe)

EPS: $6.13 vs $5.84 est
REV: $6.760B vs $6.699B est

COO (The Cooper Companies)

EPS: $1.15 vs $1.12 est
REV: $1.066B vs $1.099B est

CHWY (Chewy)

EPS: $0.36 vs $0.36 est
REV: $3.330B vs $3.361B est

KR (Kroger)

EPS: $1.09 vs $1.12 est
REV: $34.621B vs $34.314B est

CPRT (Copart)

EPS: $0.35 vs $0.38 est
REV: $1.152B vs $1.143B est

DSGX (Descartes Systems)

EPS: $0.57 vs $0.7 est
REV: $201.108M vs $199.377M est

What’s Happening Now

ORCL Oracle
ORCL delivered a massive Q1 2027 beat with +31% YoY EPS growth and record revenue of $19.3B at +30% YoY. Primarily driven by Cloud Infrastructure soaring $7.4B (+121% YoY) on relentless AI demand, prompting management to raise full-year revenue guidance to $90B+. Despite the fundamental acceleration, the stock remained muted post-earnings after Free Cash Flow flipped to negative $5.4B in order to fund its massive AI hyperscale bets.

ADBE Adobe
ADBE handily beat Q3 estimates with +15% EPS and +13% revenue YoY, driven by aggressive AI monetization while alleviating SaaSpocalypse concerns. However, a CEO exit stole the spotlight and shares initially sold off before rebounding again Friday. As Adobe prioritizes user acquisition over immediate price hikes, its freemium userbase has surged +70% YoY to more than 100M today. This strategy is starting to convert: Firefly ARR jumped 40% QoQ, pushing total AI-first ARR past $650 million and is contributing to management raising full-year guidance.

AMGN Amgen
Since 2010, Amgen enters next week with a historic 81% win-rate and a 1.4% average gain. The seasonal setup emerges after a sharp recent sell-off, triggered by a failed Novartis heart disease trial which Amgen has a similar and competing pipeline for. Despite the technical panic, Amgen recently crushed Q2 earnings, raised full-year guidance, and reported stellar Phase 3 results for its separate anti-inflammatory TEZSPIRE and is in Phase 3 for its GLP-1 treatment MariTide.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!