Market Update Into October 6th: Market Shakes Shutdown

Markets pushed to fresh all-time highs again last week, despite a government shutdown and weaker-than-expected consumer confidence weighing on sentiment. The rally extended beyond equities, with crypto, gold, and silver all moving higher, highlighting the strength of the current risk-on environment. Leading the way was the healthcare sector (XLV), which posted the week’s largest gain following President Trump’s deal with Pfizer.

• Buffett Fuels Oxy
• EA Gets Bought
• TrumpRX Sparks Pfizer
• ChatGPT Powers Etsy

Looking ahead, traders will be focused on the release of FOMC minutes, a wave of Fed speakers, and consumer sentiment data. However, the ongoing government shutdown may delay the release of key economic reports. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how the charts are setting up.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY ended last week in the green at $669.21 (+1.06%) to kick off October. Zooming out to the monthly chart, September marked SPY’s strongest performance since June, completely defying its typically bearish seasonality. The Combined RSI Ensemble Indicator ended the month with a yellow candle, signaling that at least one RSI length has crossed above 80 and may be entering overbought territory.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

QQQ also rose last week and closed at $603.18 (+0.91%), printing its highest RSI reading since December 2021. The monthly candle for October is printing orange on the RSI Ensemble Indicator, signaling that two RSI lengths are now in overbought territory. With both tech and hard assets like silver pushing higher, the question now is which trend will outlast the other.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The small-cap IWM ETF performed the best among the major indexes last week, closing at $245.83 (+1.48%). Unlike its large-cap peers, the RSI Ensemble Indicator has remained neutral for months, shown by a steady run of gray candles. With large caps entering overbought territory and rate cuts underway, a rotation into small caps could be gaining traction.

Earnings

Notable Results

NKE (Nike)

• EPS: $0.49 vs $0.27 est
• REV: $11.720B vs $11.002B est

UNFI (United Natural Foods)

• EPS: $(0.11) vs $(0.19) est
• REV: $7.696B vs $7.635B est

LW (Lamb Weston)

• EPS: $0.74 vs $0.54 est
• REV: $1.659B vs $1.613B est

JEF (Jefferies Financial Group)

• EPS: $1.01 vs $0.80 est
• REV: $2.047B vs $1.910B est

PRGS (Progress Software)

• EPS: $1.50 vs $1.19 est
• REV: $249.795M vs $240.204M est

ANGO (AngioDynamics)

• EPS: $(0.10) vs $(0.13) est
• REV: $75.711M vs $72.527M est

CAG (Conagra Brands)

• EPS: $0.39 vs $0.33 est
• REV: $2.633B vs $2.613B est

CUK (Carnival plc – ADR)

• EPS: $1.43 vs $1.24 est
• REV: $8.153B vs $8.108B est

AYI (Acuity Brands)

• EPS: $5.20 vs $4.63 est
• REV: $1.209B vs $1.222B est

CCL (Carnival Corp.)

• EPS: $1.43 vs $1.32 est
• REV: $8.153B vs $8.093B est

PAYX (Paychex)

• EPS: $1.22 vs $1.21 est
• REV: $1.540B vs $1.538B est

RPM (RPM International)

• EPS: $1.88 vs $1.88 est
• REV: $2.113B vs $2.049B est

MTN (Vail Resorts)

• EPS: $(5.08) vs $(4.74) est
• REV: $271.289M vs $273.695M est

IDT (IDT Corp.)

• EPS: $0.76 vs $0.91 est
• REV: $316.600M vs $310.000M est

CALM (Cal-Maine Foods)

• EPS: $4.12 vs $5.35 est
• REV: $922.602M vs $952.440M est

IVA (Inventiva S.A.)

• EPS: $(1.84) vs $(0.41) est
• REV: $5.050M vs $5.310M est

What’s Happening Now

SLV Silver ETF
While equities hover near record highs, it’s the precious metals that are making the most noise. Silver has surged more than 60% YTD, outpacing every equity sector by a wide margin. Gold isn’t far behind, cementing 2025 as a breakout year for hard assets. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy XLK remains the top-performing equity sector, highlighting a rare environment where both metals and growth stocks are rising simultaneously. This kind of alignment doesn’t add up, and traders are now asking the big question: which side gives up ground first?

PFE Pfizer
PFE jumped over 15% after announcing a landmark deal with the Trump administration to slash drug prices and avoid the new 100% import tariffs. The “TrumpRx” agreement gives Pfizer most-favored-nation pricing and includes a $70 billion pledge for U.S. R&D and manufacturing. With healthcare lagging for most of the year, this news allowed the sector to outperform significantly last week.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!