Market Update Into October 20th: Tariff Whipsaw Week

Markets chopped around last week as traders grappled with renewed tariff threats from President Trump and the continued government shutdown, which delayed key economic releases, including CPI. Despite the intraday volatility, all major indexes closed with inside weekly candles, reflecting mixed market sentiment. While stocks ($SPY), treasuries ($TLT), and gold ($GLD) all managed to end last week green, crypto remained bearish and ended lower.

• Dimon Cautions Markets
• Walmart ChatGPT Rally
• Amazon Layoffs Surge
• Trump Rattles HIMS

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to the kickoff of Q3 earnings season, with $TSLA and $NFLX set to report. As long as the government shutdown drags on, traders should expect further delays in key economic data, which adds more uncertainty to the already volatile market sentiment. Let’s see how the charts are setting up for this week.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY finished last week on a positive note at $664.39 (+1.73%), as buyers stepped in following the previous Friday’s sharp selloff. Despite the rebound, price remains directionless, caught between key levels in the Multi-Scale VWAP Gradient Cloud (indicator by Pietro Froio), anchored to the September and October highs. This tightening range signals that a breakout in either direction could determine the market’s next move.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Tech led the market last week, with QQQ closing at $603.93 (+2.45%). While it closed just above the Multi-Scale VWAP Gradient Cloud resistance, the Momentum Filter (indicator by Chirag Patnaik) is flashing consolidation with neutral gray bars. As the Q3 earnings season kicks off this week, traders are watching closely to see whether momentum can pivot back to bullish.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small-caps hit new highs this week but got quickly rejected, with IWM closing at $243.41 (+2.37%). The ETF is currently forming an AVWAP “Pinch” setup (coined by Brian Shannon), as price consolidates between the anchored VWAPs from the start of September and October. With small caps being the most rate-sensitive segment of the market, the upcoming FOMC decision at month-end could be the catalyst for a decisive move.

Earnings

Notable Results

MS (Morgan Stanley)

• EPS: $2.80 vs $2.09 est
• REV: $18.20B vs $16.56B est

TRV (Travelers Companies)

• EPS: $8.14 vs $6.13 est
• REV: $12.47B vs $11.63B est

C (Citigroup)

• EPS: $2.24 vs $1.78 est
• REV: $22.09B vs $21.14B est

BAC (Bank of America)

• EPS: $1.06 vs $0.94 est
• REV: $28.24B vs $27.39B est

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

• EPS: $2.92 vs $2.59 est
• REV: $33.10B vs $31.50B est

WFC (Wells Fargo)

• EPS: $1.73 vs $1.54 est
• REV: $21.44B vs $21.17B est

GS (Goldman Sachs)

• EPS: $12.25 vs $11.02 est
• REV: $15.18B vs $14.15B est

IBKR (Interactive Brokers)

• EPS: $0.57 vs $0.52 est
• REV: $1.66B vs $1.49B est

BK (Bank of New York Mellon)

• EPS: $1.91 vs $1.76 est
• REV: $5.07B vs $4.97B est

SCHW (Charles Schwab)

• EPS: $1.31 vs $1.24 est
• REV: $6.14B vs $5.99B est

JPM (JPMorgan Chase)

• EPS: $5.07 vs $4.86 est
• REV: $47.12B vs $45.29B est

AXP (American Express)

• EPS: $4.14 vs $3.98 est
• REV: $18.43B vs $18.03B est

SLB (Schlumberger)

• EPS: $0.69 vs $0.67 est
• REV: $8.93B vs $8.93B est

DPZ (Domino’s Pizza)

• EPS: $4.08 vs $3.97 est
• REV: $1.15B vs $1.14B est

BLK (BlackRock)

• EPS: $11.55 vs $11.30 est
• REV: $6.51B vs $6.25B est

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

• EPS: $2.80 vs $2.76 est
• REV: $23.99B vs $23.75B est

ASML (ASML Holding)

• EPS: $6.42 vs $6.36 est
• REV: $8.79B vs $8.81B est

ABT (Abbott Laboratories)

• EPS: $1.30 vs $1.30 est
• REV: $11.37B vs $11.40B est

PGR (Progressive Corp.)

• EPS: $4.06 vs $5.03 est
• REV: $20.85B vs $21.92B est

What’s Happening Now

NTSK Netskope
Netskope made its Nasdaq debut in September and has quickly drawn Wall Street’s attention. Twelve unanimous buy ratings were initiated this week with an average target of $26.75, about 17% above Friday’s $22.81 close. With 31% year-over-year revenue growth and 69% gross margins, the early numbers suggest a story that might be worth paying attention to.

BTC Bitcoin
Bitcoin is entering its strongest seasonal stretch of the year. Historically, late October through early November has delivered some of BTC’s highest win rates, including a 90% positive frequency and average gains near 5%. The setup aligns with Bitcoin’s most reliable multi-week window of the decade, marking a statistically favorable moment for bullish momentum to build if there ever was one.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!