Market Update Into October 13th: Tariff Fears Return

Markets consolidated for most of last week as traders digested the latest FOMC minutes and navigated the uncertainty caused by the ongoing government shutdown. The absence of key data releases, including jobless claims, left traders flying partially blind. Then came Friday, when President Trump reignited U.S.-China trade tensions with a post threatening new tariffs, citing increasingly hostile relations. This caused equities and crypto to tank, while gold (GLD) and treasuries (TLT) caught a bid.

• ASTS Moon Mission
• Tesla’s Big Reveal
• APP Under Fire
• OpenAI Fuels AMD

Looking ahead, all eyes are on whether this week’s CPI report will be released or delayed due to the shutdown. With bears on the prowl and bullish momentum starting to cool, this week could be a pivotal moment for the broader trend. Traders will be watching closely to see if buyers continue to defend the dips, or if the tide is starting to turn. Let’s take a look at the charts.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY finished the week lower, closing at $653.02 (-2.42%), as bears stepped in with conviction. For the first time since February, price broke below the 4-hour mint green LinkLine channel support, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. Adding to the pressure, the Kalshi Indicator reflected a sharp shift in sentiment, with odds of the S&P 500 finishing the year between 6,400 and 6,599 nearly doubling to 14% after Friday’s selloff.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Tech wasn’t spared from last week’s selloff, with QQQ closing lower at $589.50 (-2.27%). The Kalshi Indicator odds were less volatile for the Nasdaq-100, and it also closed right on top of its mint green LinkLine channel support. Notably, the last time the index closed below this 4-hour trend line marked the September bottom, leaving traders watching closely to see if dip buyers will step back in this week.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small-caps took the hardest hit last week, with the IWM closing at $237.29 (-3.27%). While there isn’t a prediction market for the Russell 2000 index, inflation and rates hold the key for small-cap stocks. The Kalshi Indicator now shows significantly lower odds of core inflation finishing 2025 above 3%. Despite that shift, traders still expect two rate cuts this year, a scenario that may act as a tailwind for this group into year-end.

Earnings

Notable Results

AEHR (Aehr Test Systems)

• EPS: $0.01 vs $(0.01) est
• REV: $10.97M vs $10.51M est

TLRY (Tilray Brands)

• EPS: $0.00 vs $(0.01) est
• REV: $209.50M vs $206.18M est

BYRN (Byrna Technologies)

• EPS: $0.09 vs $0.05 est
• REV: $28.18M vs $28.20M est

APLD (Applied Digital)

• EPS: $(0.03) vs $(0.14) est
• REV: $64.22M vs $44.47M est

PENG (Pennant Group)

• EPS: $0.43 vs $0.31 est
• REV: $337.92M vs $341.26M est

NEOG (Neogen)

• EPS: $0.04 vs $0.03 est
• REV: $209.19M vs $203.76M est

HELE (Helen of Troy)

• EPS: $0.59 vs $0.45 est
• REV: $431.78M vs $418.16M est

APOG (Apogee Enterprises)

• EPS: $0.98 vs $0.85 est
• REV: $358.19M vs $350.91M est

DAL (Delta Air Lines)

• EPS: $1.71 vs $1.54 est
• REV: $16.67B vs $15.90B est

LEVI (Levi Strauss & Co.)

• EPS: $0.34 vs $0.31 est
• REV: $1.54B vs $1.50B est

STZ (Constellation Brands)

• EPS: $3.63 vs $3.39 est
• REV: $2.48B vs $2.46B est

MKC (McCormick & Co.)

• EPS: $0.85 vs $0.81 est
• REV: $1.72B vs $1.71B est

PEP (PepsiCo)

• EPS: $2.29 vs $2.26 est
• REV: $23.94B vs $23.86B est

AZZ (AZZ Inc.)

• EPS: $1.55 vs $1.57 est
• REV: $417.28M vs $427.47M est

NRIX (Nurix Therapeutics)

• EPS: $(1.03) vs $(0.85) est
• REV: $7.89M vs $17.10M est

What’s Happening Now

NEE (NextEra Energy)
NEE has risen more than 20% from its September lows and is entering its strongest seasonal stretch, with next week historically positive 86% of the time and averaging a +0.9% gain. The stock remains steady above $83 as analysts lift targets to $92–95, supported by growing confidence in its nuclear assets and rising demand from AI-driven power needs.

JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
Major bank earnings kick off on Tuesday, with over $145 billion in expected revenue reporting. The spotlight is on credit stress versus capital markets recovery as volatility aids trading desks but pressures consumer lenders. JPM’s outlook on margins and loan quality will anchor sentiment, especially as Trump’s tariff escalation injects new uncertainty into an already fragile market.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!