Market Update Into November 4th: Indexes Brace For Election

3 mins read

The week started quietly, with all eyes squarely on major tech earnings rolling in throughout the week. One by one, five of the Mag 7—GOOG, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL—reported double-beat results, yet the markets remained unimpressed. Thursday brought a sharp sell-off, followed by a weak bounce on Friday, leaving indices clinging to support at the key 50-day Simple Moving Average. Elsewhere in the market;

With the election just days away, are traders simply lightening up their exposure into this polarizing event, or was Thursday’s sell-off a foreshadowing of further downside to come? Let’s dig into the charts and see where things ended up.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The week started off quietly for the SPY ETF, but after a gap down on Thursday which saw the price break below the multi-month rising wedge, the index closed sharply lower at $571.04 (-1.39%). All eyes are now on the 50-day SMA, which acted as key support on Thursday’s rout.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Despite knockout earnings from five of the most important companies in the index, the QQQ ETF once again stalled just below its summer high, correcting sharply on Thursday and closing the week at $487.43 (-1.54%). The price now hangs in the balance, between support at the 50-day SMA below and resistance at the bottom of a rising wedge above.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The IWM ETF held up the best of the major indices, going inside on the week and closing in lockstep with last week’s close at $218.98 (+0.03%). Still, the setup on small caps mirrors that of their large-cap counterparts, as the price hovers at the 50-day SMA after slipping below the multi-month rising wedge.

Earnings

Notable Results

AAPL (Apple)

EPS: $1.64 vs $1.60 est
SALES: $94.90B vs $94.56B est

MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

EPS: $3.30 vs $3.09 est
SALES: $65.60B vs $64.51B est

GOOG (Alphabet Inc.)

EPS: $2.12 vs $1.84 est
SALES: $88.27B vs $86.31B est

AMZN (Amazon.com)

EPS: $1.43 vs $1.14 est
SALES: $158.90B vs $157.20B

META (Meta Platforms)

EPS: $6.03 vs $5.25 est
SALES: $40.59B vs $40.29B est

INTC (Intel Corporation)

EPS: $0.12 vs $(0.02) est
SALES: $13.30B vs $13.02B est

LLY (Eli Lilly & Company)

EPS: $1.18 vs $1.45 est
SALES: $11.44B vs $12.10B est

MCD (McDonald’s Corporation)

EPS: $3.23 vs $3.20 est
SALES: $6.90B vs $6.82B est

XOM (Exxon Mobil)

EPS: $1.92 vs $1.88 est
SALES: $90.02B vs $93.94B est

CAT (Caterpillar Inc.)

EPS: $5.17 vs $5.36 est
SALES: $16.11B vs $16.28B est

CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill)

EPS: $0.27 vs $0.25 est
SALES: $2.79B vs $2.82B est

V (Visa Inc.)

EPS: $2.71 vs $2.58 est
SALES: $9.60B vs $9.49B est

PYPL (PayPal Holdings)

EPS: $1.20 vs $1.07 est
SALES: $7.85B vs $7.88B est

SOFI (SoFi Technologies)

EPS: $0.05 vs $0.04 est
SALES: $689.44M vs $632.33M est

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

EPS: $0.92 vs $0.92 est
SALES: $6.80B vs $6.71B est

What’s Happening Now

SPY (S&P 500)

The S&P 500 broke its five-month winning streak in October, closing down -0.93%. Aligning with historical election year trends, October sees heightened market uncertainty, making it the only month with a consistent negative record and the deepest average decline. The positive news? Seasonality shifts in November, where clarity following the election—regardless of the winner—typically drives a rebound, with the index averaging a 2.18% rally into year-end.

This is a monthly seasonality chart of the S&P 500.

IWM (Russell 2000)

Small caps and the Russell 2000 tend to take the post-election rally one step further, averaging a 7.16% gain into year-end. IWM shows a 71% win rate in November and an unblemished track record in December during an election cycle over the last 25 years. The historical performance shows that small caps often gain momentum as election clarity boosts investor sentiment, driving renewed risk appetite.

This is a monthly seasonality chart of the IWM index.

COST (Costco)

If you are seeking a safe haven in November, Costco might be your best bet. Weekly seasonality shows COST is entering a four-week pocket of historical outperformance that extends throughout the month. Impressively, the last time Costco’s stock posted a monthly loss in November, iPads, Instagram, and Spotify didn’t exist.

This is a weekly seasonality chart of COST.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!