The markets demonstrated impressive resilience this week, with major indexes holding their October highs in a classic example of resistance turning into support. Bitcoin surged toward $100K, driven by enthusiasm around President-elect Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly staff appointments, which have injected fresh energy into the sector. Meanwhile, NVIDIA stole the spotlight yet again, delivering a blockbuster earnings report that reaffirmed its dominance in the AI and data center space. Elsewhere in the markets;
- Gensler Is Out
- Robinhood Acquires TradePMR
- ConocoPhillips Acquires Marathon Oil
- Introducing: The AI Strategy Lab
The major indexes each tell a distinct story this week—SPY hinting at relative weakness, QQQ consolidating, and IWM outperforming with seasonal strength on the horizon. Let’s dive into the details.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
For the first time in a while, the SPY ETF is showing some slight relative weakness, trailing behind the other major indexes in percentage gain terms and closing the week at $595.51 (+1.66%). However, the technical setup remains clear: a textbook support/resistance flip, with the 21-EMA providing added support.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
The QQQ ETF ended the week at $505.79 (+1.87%), finding support exactly where expected, at the October high. However, the lack of follow-through raises some concerns. Despite a constructive consolidation above the 21-EMA throughout the week, it failed to close last Friday’s gap down, so bulls will want to see a decisive move higher in the near term, especially with NVIDIA’s earnings report in the rear view.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
The IWM ETF started the week on uncertain footing but staged an impressive turnaround on Tuesday, gaining momentum through Friday to close strongly at $238.77 (+4.48%). Supported by the 21-EMA and October highs, it showcased a picture-perfect support/resistance flip and seems poised to capitalize on the seasonal tailwinds typical for this time of year, particularly in election cycles.
Earnings
Notable Results
NVDA (NVIDIA)
- EPS: $0.81 vs $0.75 est
- SALES: $35.10B vs $33.13B est
WMT (Walmart)
- EPS: $0.58 vs $0.53 est
- SALES: $169.60B vs $167.72B est
INTU (Intuit)
- EPS: $2.50 vs $2.35 est
- SALES: $3.28B vs $3.14B est
PDD (PDD Holdings)
- EPADS: $2.65 vs $2.82 est
- SALES: $14.16B vs $14.47B est
LOW (Lowe’s Companies)
- EPS: $2.89 vs $2.82 est
- SALES: $20.17B vs $19.94B est
TJX (TJX Companies)
- EPS: $1.14 vs $1.09 est
- SALES: $14.06B vs $13.95B est
SNOW (Snowflake)
- EPS: $0.20 vs $0.15 est
- SALES: $942.09M vs $896.99M est
PANW (Palo Alto Networks)
- EPS: $1.56 vs $1.48 est
- SALES: $2.14B vs $2.12B est
MDT (Medtronic)
- EPS: $1.26 vs $1.25 est
- SALES: $8.40B vs $8.27B est
DE (Deere & Company)
- EPS: $4.55 vs $3.90 est
- SALES: $11.14B vs $9.34B est
TGT (Target Corporation)
- EPS: $1.85 vs $2.30 est
- SALES: $25.67B vs $25.90B est
What’s Happening Now
NVDA (NVIDIA)
NVIDIA’s Q3 2024 earnings showcased extraordinary growth, with revenue skyrocketing from $3.01 billion in 2019 to $35.08 billion (+1,065%) and earnings per share surging from $0.04 to $0.81 (+1,925%) over the same period. Revenues grew 94% YoY, driven by booming demand for AI chips. However, as the company scales, tougher year-over-year comparisons present a growing challenge to maintain exponential growth. Even so, their focus on AI and data center markets positions it well for sustained success.
COST (Costco)
Costco is poised to extend its perfect November streak, up over 9% month-to-date and preserving a flawless 100% win rate for the month since 2008. Next week, historically its best week, carries a 93% win rate and an average weekly return of 2.09%. October sales impressed with $20.03 billion, up 7.2% YoY, spurring several analysts to raise price targets above $1,000/share.
NVO (Novo Nordisk)
Novo Nordisk has surged in recent years, powered by the success of its diabetes and weight-loss drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy, driving record sales and profits. However, the stock has traded down 22% over the last quarter. With an 84% December win rate over 20 years and elevated returns into the new year, strong seasonality could provide the catalyst bulls have been searching for.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming