Market Update Into November 17th: Government Shutdown Ends

3 mins read

Markets were choppy last week as early strength gave way to a sharp midweek gap down. The end of the government shutdown coincided with the start of the selloff, creating a sell-the-news moment that was amplified by multiple Fed officials expressing concerns about inflation. However, the weakness was not uniform. The healthcare and energy sectors posted solid gains as money rotated out of tech and semiconductors. By Friday, buyers stepped back in and lifted the indexes back to roughly unchanged levels. In other news:

Looking ahead, Wednesday takes center stage with both the FOMC minutes and earnings from chip titan $NVDA on deck. With additional Fed speakers scheduled, markets could be in for some more volatility. Let’s see how the charts are shaping up.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY closed the week unchanged at $671.93 (+0.15%). The EMA Crossover Candle Colors indicator is edging closer to a bearish trend reversal, and the GoNoGo Squeeze Oscillator has now held a squeeze for eight straight sessions. With price sitting just above a low-volume node, the combination of a persistent squeeze and thin support below raises the risk of a fast move lower if buyers do not step in soon.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

With tech taking some heat this week, the QQQ closed slightly lower at $608.86 (-0.14%). Thursday’s selloff ended the GoNoGo Squeeze and pushed the Oscillator below zero on strong volume, indicated by the dark blue line. With $NVDA reporting earnings this week, momentum turning negative, and an 8 and 21 EMA bearish crossover only cents away, conditions are forming for a potentially significant move.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small-caps performed the worst of all its peers last week, with IWM closing at $237.48 (-1.17%). Following the prior week’s bearish 8/21 EMA crossover, the ETF is now slipping into a low-volume node where price often accelerates. Momentum continues to favor sellers, and any additional hawkish Fed commentary this week could add to the pressure on small caps.

Earnings

Notable Results

CRCL (Circle)

EPS: $0.64 vs $0.17 est
REV: $739.76M vs $703.31M est

ONON (On Holding)

EPS: $0.54 vs $0.20 est
REV: $993.04M vs $939.02M est

BN (Brookfield)

EPS: $0.27 vs $0.27 est
REV: $18.92B vs — est

MNDY (Monday.com)

EPS: $1.16 vs $0.57 est
REV: $316.86M vs $312.16M est

CRVW (CoreWeave)

EPS: $(0.08) vs $(0.52) est
REV: $1.36B vs $1.28B est

RKLB (Rocket Lab)

EPS: $(0.03) vs $(0.10) est
REV: $155.05M vs $150.96M est

JD (JD.com)

EPS: $0.52 vs $0.34 est
REV: $42.01B vs $41.33B est

TSN (Tyson Foods)

EPS: $1.15 vs $0.84 est
REV: $13.86B vs $14.01B est

HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings)

EPS: $2.02 vs $1.54 est
REV: $390.24M vs $347.41M est

OXY (Occidental Petroleum)

EPS: $0.64 vs $0.49 est
REV: $6.72B vs $6.73B est

RGTI (Rigetti Computing)

EPS: $(0.03) vs $(0.04) est
REV: $1.95M vs $2.26M est

MFC (Manulife Financial)

EPS: $0.84 vs $0.74 est
REV: $1.58B vs — est

NU (Nu Holdings)

EPS: $0.17 vs $0.15 est
REV: $4.17B vs $4.04B est

CSCO (Cisco Systems)

EPS: $1.00 vs $0.91 est
REV: $14.88B vs $14.78B est

DIS (Walt Disney)

EPS: $1.11 vs $1.03 est
REV: $22.46B vs $22.82B est

SONY (Sony Group)

EPS: $0.35 vs $0.33 est
REV: $21.09B vs $20.04B est

AMAT (Applied Materials)

EPS: $2.17 vs $2.10 est
REV: $6.80B vs $6.68B est

B (Barnes Group)

EPS: $0.58 vs $0.59 est
REV: $4.15B vs $4.30B est

SE (Sea Limited)

EPS: $0.59 vs $0.87 est
REV: $5.99B vs $5.76B est

OKLO (Oklo)

EPS: $(0.20) vs $(0.13) est
REV: $0 vs — est

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile)

EPS: $(0.45) vs $(0.23) est
REV: $14.74M vs $21.52M est

PSKY (Paramount Skydance)

EPS: $(0.12) vs $0.41 est
REV: $6.70B vs $6.93B est

What’s Happening Now

SPY S&P 500
The 43 day shutdown ended after Congress passed a temporary funding bill that reopened agencies and restored basic operations. The damage lingers. Key October economic reports remain unreleased, including CPI, PPI, retail sales, payrolls, and industrial production. Markets slipped as investors priced in the data blackout and the uncertainty it creates for policy expectations and fourth quarter outlooks.

GOOG Alphabet
Buffett just wrote a $4.3 billion check for his first Google stake while Ackman sold only $126 million and still sits on about $1.5 billion in stock. The bet for both is simple. Google’s legacy businesses generate the cash that funds its AI push at scale. Search and YouTube pay for Gemini and DeepMind, giving Google room to build while others burn capital to compete.

AMD Advanced Micro Devices.
AMD is in the middle of a seasonal window where it consistently outperforms its peers. Next week historically builds on that strength, with gains well above the flat or negative returns seen across other chip and mega-cap tech names. It’s a clear divergence pattern, positioning AMD as the standout in an otherwise weak stretch for the group.

AMD weekly Seasonality since December 1st 2015

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!