Market Update Into May 12th: Tariff Talks Loom

3 mins read

Markets drifted sideways this week as traders digested a steady Fed, muted price action, and looming trade headlines. While Wednesday’s FOMC decision delivered brief volatility fueled by Chair Powell’s press conference, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at 4.25%-4.50% landed as expected, leaving investors with little new guidance. Instead, attention turned to geopolitics, as headlines around renewed U.S.-China tariff negotiations dominated the narrative heading into the weekend, leaving the market to close the week relatively flat.

As traders look ahead, this week’s CPI and PPI releases will offer crucial clues on the inflation path and future Fed policy shifts. Meanwhile, U.S.-China trade negotiations could serve as a wildcard, with any signs of tension likely to stir fresh volatility. Though the VIX has cooled for now, the calm may not last. Let’s see how the charts are setting up.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY closed the week virtually flat at $564.34 (-0.40%), hovering just below its 50-week simple moving average. With the weekly MACD beginning to curl higher, this level now serves as a pivotal battleground for bulls looking to sustain upside momentum. A failure to reclaim it could open the door for bears to step in, potentially setting a lower high and targeting the low-volume node near the 2022 bear market POC in the mid-440s.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

With big tech earnings in the rearview, QQQ settled at $487.97 (-0.18%), right on top of a high-volume node. While the earnings catalyst has faded, renewed tariff concerns could be the next driver of volatility. With price coiling at this key level, traders are left questioning whether this marks the beginning of a confirmed uptrend or just another deceptive leg in a broader bear market rally.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

IWM closed the week at $200.81 (+0.16%) as traders look ahead to critical inflation data. With small-caps typically more vulnerable to rising rates and inflationary pressures, this week’s CPI and PPI prints carry added weight. IWM remains stuck beneath heavy overhead supply, with the 50-week SMA nearly 7% above current levels, which looms as a key resistance level on any potential breakout.

Earnings

Notable Results

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

EPS: $0.96 vs $0.94 est
REV: $7.44B vs $7.13B est

PLTR (Palantir)

EPS: $0.13 vs $0.13 est
REV: $883.86M vs $862.83M est

HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)

EPS: $0.20 vs $0.12 est
REV: $586.01M vs $538.20M est

SMCI (Super Micro Computer)

EPS: $0.31 vs $0.50 est
REV: $4.60B vs $5.42B est

UBER (Uber Technologies)

EPS: $0.83 vs $0.50 est
REV: $11.53B vs $11.62B est

DIS (Walt Disney Company)

EPS: $1.45 vs $1.20 est
REV: $23.62B vs $23.14B est

ANET (Arista Networks)

EPS: $0.65 vs $0.60 est
REV: $2.00B vs $2.02B est

F (Ford Motor)

EPS: $0.14 vs $0.02 est
REV: $37.42B vs $36.20B est

DASH (DoorDash)

EPS: $0.44 vs $0.39 est
REV: $3.03B vs $3.09B est

EA (Electronic Arts)

EPS: $1.58 vs $1.09 est
REV: $1.80B vs $1.56B est

ARM (Arm Holdings)

EPS: $0.55 vs $0.52 est
REV: $1.24B vs $1.23B est

CVNA (Carvana)

EPS: $1.51 vs $0.60 est
REV: $4.23B vs $3.98B est

What’s Happening Now

GLD Gold
Gold is leading all sectors year to date, up more than 25%, despite near-term equity strength. This kind of outperformance often signals rising macro uncertainty, pressure on the dollar, or fading confidence in bonds. As tariff headlines dominate and capital rotates defensively, the market continues to position for volatility ahead. If gold keeps climbing while stocks stall, it could be a warning, not a confirmation.

UBER Uber
Uber posted $1.78B in net income, $2.3B in free cash flow, and 18% trip growth in Q1, reinforcing its profitability narrative despite a slight revenue miss. Analysts followed with a wave of buy ratings, including a $110 target from Goldman Sachs. All of this comes after Bill Ackman disclosed a $2.3B stake, calling Uber ‘one of the best managed and highest quality businesses in the world’ and ‘massively undervalued.

HIMS Hims & Hers Health
Hims & Hers just posted 111% revenue growth and a 345% jump in EBITDA, extending its parabolic earnings streak. Subscriber count surged 38% to 2.37M, with monthly revenue per user rising to $84. Revenue has tripled since 2022, and 2025 guidance points to $2.4B; the growth story is speeding up. Fueled by expansion into weight loss, mental health, and its latest Wegovy partnership with Novo Nordisk.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!