Market Update Into March 9th: Inflation Prints Incoming

3 mins read

Markets took a hit last week as U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran sent oil prices surging after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz. Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report piled on, printing at -92K against expectations of +50K, the first negative reading in years. That combination of surging energy costs and crumbling labor data has traders pricing in stagflation, the worst-case scenario for a Fed already running out of room. $MRVL and $AVGO showed strength, both pushing higher on earnings. In other news:

Looking ahead, $ORCL and $ADBE are set to report earnings. We will also get fresh CPI and PCE prints, giving traders the data they need to answer the key question: is the bad news priced in, or are the bears just getting started? Let’s see how the indexes are looking.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY closed the week at $672.38 (-1.98%), with dips bought throughout until Friday’s employment miss broke the tape. The Breakout Buddy flashed red for the first time in over a year, with Ishaan confirming bearish momentum at its lowest reading since November. Last time the Breakout Buddy signaled short, SPY dropped ~17%.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

QQQ outperformed SPY and IWM, closing at $599.75 (-1.24%), as $AVGO’s earnings rebound helped it bounce off the lower Breakout Buddy channel and avoid a short signal. However, Ishaan has been flashing bearish momentum for nearly a month, making that lower channel the line in the sand. If it breaks, QQQ follows SPY into short territory for trend followers.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

IWM took the most heat, closing at $250.89 (-4.02%), with rate cut odds sinking ahead of FOMC and fresh CPI data weighing hardest on small-caps. The Breakout Buddy flashed its first short signal since November; however, the Ishaan remains in neutral territory. If it flips bearish, the bears control all three major indexes.

Earnings

Notable Results

JD (JD.com)

EPS: $0.08 vs ($0.03) est
REV: $50.38B vs $50.22B est

MDB (MongoDB)

EPS: $1.65 vs $0.92 est
REV: $695.07M vs $668.89M est

CRWD (CrowdStrike)

EPS: $1.12 vs $0.74 est
REV: $1.31B vs $1.30B est

VIK (Viking Holdings)

EPS: $0.67 vs $0.55 est
REV: $1.72B vs $1.63B est

TGT (Target)

EPS: $2.44 vs $2.16 est
REV: $30.45B vs $30.49B est

MRVL (Marvell Technology)

EPS: $0.80 vs $0.71 est
REV: $2.22B vs $2.16B est

CNQ (Canadian Natural Resources)

EPS: $0.59 vs $0.53 est
REV: $6.89B vs $6.62B est

SATS (EchoStar)

EPS: ($0.70) vs ($0.78) est
REV: $3.80B vs $3.74B est

AVGO (Broadcom)

EPS: $2.05 vs $1.88 est
REV: $19.31B vs $19.19B est

KR (Kroger)

EPS: $1.28 vs $1.20 est
REV: $34.73B vs $35.09B est

ROST (Ross Stores)

EPS: $2.00 vs $1.89 est
REV: $6.64B vs $6.42B est

AZO (AutoZone)

EPS: $27.63 vs $27.41 est
REV: $4.27B vs $4.30B est

COST (Costco)

EPS: $4.58 vs $4.55 est
REV: $69.60B vs $69.28B est

SE (Sea Limited)

EPS: $0.63 vs $0.74 est
REV: $6.85B vs $6.57B est

ASTS (AST SpaceMobile)

EPS: ($0.26) vs ($0.19) est
REV: $54.31M vs $41.21M est

What’s Happening Now

XLE Energy Sector
Our new Sector Rotation Chart shows the historic shift toward XLE, GLD, and ITA over the past six months. Meanwhile, momentum has slowed for financials and tech amid 1970s-like conflicts and stagflation fears. Yet unlike previous decades, the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer, and its companies could benefit if Venezuela and Iran ultimately unlock supply. Software as a tech component is also showing notable short-term strength.

APP AppLovin
After charting severe drawdowns this year, the software sector has staged a broad rebound from 52W lows. Large-cap Microsoft rallied almost 20% from its post-earnings drop while smaller SaaS firm AppLovin led a sharp +150% bounce. On Friday, WedBush analysts issued an outperform rating for APP given its new AI ad tech. For legacy software names in the AI-fueled future, fortune will likely favor those who adapt or die.

FXF Swiss Franc Trust
The Swiss franc is a classic safe haven, outperforming USD on nearly every timeframe. The country boasts the highest per capita gold holdings, held in its literal mountain refuge, as monetary insurance. However, the SNB recently warned against its “excessive” appreciation, and the USD shows short-term durability as oil spikes inflation and rate cuts become less likely.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!