Market Update into March 3rd: Markets Under Fire

The market stumbled out of the gate last week, with bears pressing their advantage and driving major indices lower. Tariff talks helped fuel bearish momentum on Wednesday after President Trump threatened a 25% tariff on EU imports and confirmed a 10% tariff hike on China, escalating trade tensions. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s earnings sent shockwaves through the Nasdaq as shares tumbled over 10% despite a double beat, dragging QQQ to its yearly lows. On the macro front, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, came in at 2.5%, ticking lower from the previous print and hinting at a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures. In other news:

• Apple’s U.S. Expansion
• Tesla’s FSD Challenge
• Trump’s EU Tariffs
• Nvidia Beats Earnings

As the new month kicks off, the major indices are trading near their year-to-date lows. With sentiment on edge, Friday’s jobs report will bring fresh insights into the labor market, with the unemployment rate in focus. Adding to the volatility, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak that same day, potentially shaping expectations for the central bank’s next move. Meanwhile, we have some significant earnings on deck with AVGO, COST, and CRWD all reporting this week.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF closed lower last week at $594.18 (-0.95%). Bears briefly forced a breakdown below the neckline of its double top, but a strong end-of-month rally reclaimed that level, leaving traders questioning whether this is just an oversold bounce or the start of a meaningful reversal. With the daily RSI curling up from deeply oversold conditions not seen since August 2024, the coming sessions will be critical in determining if bulls can sustain momentum or if further downside awaits.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF took the hardest hit last week, sliding to $508.17 (-3.41%) and testing a critical support zone. It now sits at the neckline of a developing double top, which also aligns with its year-to-date low, making this a major battleground for both bulls and bears. With RSI starting to stabilize after hitting oversold territory, momentum signals suggest a potential inflection point. A decisive break lower could accelerate downside pressure, while a hold at this level may open the door for a relief bounce.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

While the IWM ETF sold off most of the week, it ended up bouncing strongly off its falling wedge support and closing at $214.65 (-1.42%). With the daily RSI emerging from oversold territory, the laggard small caps could use this as an opportunity to play catchup with the other major indices. If buyers step in and momentum builds, this laggard may be primed for a much-needed bullish reversal.

Earnings

Notable Results

NVDA (NVIDIA)

• EPS: $0.89  vs  $0.84 est
• REV: $39.33B  vs  $38.05B est

DPZ (Dominos Pizza)

• EPS: $4.89  vs  $4.92 est
• REV: $1.44B  vs  $1.48B est

HD (Home Depot)

• EPS: $3.02  vs  $2.99 est
• REV: $39.70B  vs  $39.14B est

CRM (Salesforce)

• EPS: $2.78  vs  $2.61 est
• REV: $9.99B  vs  $10.04B est

SNOW (Snowflake)

• EPS: $0.30  vs  $0.17 est
• REV: $986.77M  vs  $955.93M est

RY (Royal Bank Of Canada)

• EPS: $2.59  vs  $2.28 est
• REV: $11.97B  vs  $10.84B est

INTU (Intuit)

• EPS: $3.32  vs  $2.58 est
• REV: $4.00B  vs  $3.83B est

TJX (TJX Companies)

• EPS: $1.23  vs  $1.16 est
• REV: $16.40B  vs  $16.20B est

LOW (Lowe’s Companies)

• EPS: $1.93  vs  $1.84 est
• REV: $18.55B  vs  $18.29B est

BUD (Anheuser-Busch)

• EPS: $0.88  vs  $0.72 est
• REV: $14.84B  vs  $14.05B est

CAVA (CAVA Group)

• EPS: $0.05  vs  $0.06 est
• REV: $225.10M  vs  $223.64M est

DELL (Dell Technologies)

• EPS: $2.68  vs  $2.53 est
• REV: $23.90B  vs  $24.56B est

FSLR (First Solar)

• EPS: $3.65  vs  $4.71 est
• REV: $1.51B  vs  $1.47B est

LCID (Lucid Group)

• EPS: $(0.22)  vs  $(0.27) est
• REV: $234.50M  vs  $214.22M est

What’s Happening Now

NVDA NVIDIA
Nvidia delivered record Q4 revenue of $39.3B, up 78% YoY, driven by a 93% surge in data center sales and the Blackwell AI rollout, which marked the fastest ramp in company history. Full-year revenue more than doubled to $130.5B and Q1 guidance of $43B topped expectations. Despite strong demand, shrinking gross margins and slowing EPS growth could be the beginnings of cracks in the foundation as the AI race intensifies.

PEP PepsiCo
KO has outpaced PepsiCo over the past year, climbing 17.7% vs. PEP’s -8.1% retracement, fueled by stronger revenue growth and higher margins. PepsiCo has struggled with declining U.S. snack and beverage volumes, higher debt, and shifting consumer preferences. However, March seasonality favors PEP, closing higher than February 76% of the time with an average 3.7% gain, hinting at a potential rebound despite recent underperformance.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!