The bulls started in control last week as the markets gapped up, fueled by headlines suggesting a more “targeted” approach to trade tariffs, but this rally was short-lived. As the week progressed, new 25% auto tariffs, softer-than-expected consumer confidence, and sentiment data weighed on the markets and quickly caused the gap to be filled. PCE numbers came in as expected on Friday, but this wasn’t enough to reassure investors as the week ended with a sharp selloff.
Looking ahead, next week brings a packed lineup of Fed speakers, including Chair Powell, alongside key employment data. Powell is scheduled to speak Friday afternoon, just hours after the bulk of the numbers are released. Traders will be watching closely to gauge how the market digests the data and whether Powell’s tone signals any shift in the Fed’s policy outlook. Let’s see what the charts are telling us.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
The SPY ETF closed the week at $555.73 (-1.46%), retreating sharply after an early bullish gap up. That move was quickly reversed as price rejected the top of a bear flag, putting bears back in control. Selling accelerated midweek, triggering a breakdown from the pattern and driving SPY toward its year-to-date lows, leaving bulls on the ropes.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
The QQQ ETF closed the week at $468.97 (-2.47%), finishing on a weak note after rejecting its all-time high anchored VWAP, which represents the average price paid since the market’s peak. A rejection here indicates trapped longs are selling into strength at breakeven to reduce exposure. It also broke below a key high-volume node, leaving the index with little support below. With bearish momentum building, the bears head into the week holding the upper hand.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
The IWM ETF closed the week at $200.45 (-1.63%), continuing to underperform as small caps struggle for traction. Unlike its large-cap counterparts, it never even reached its all-time high anchored VWAP and now clings to the bottom of a key high-volume node. With support thinning out, a test of the 52-week low appears increasingly likely as IWM remains the weakest link among major indexes.
Earnings
Notable Results
LULU (Lululemon Athletica)
- EPS: $6.14 vs $5.85 est
- REV: $3.61B vs $3.57B est
GME (GameStop)
- EPS: $0.30 vs $0.08 est
- REV: $1.28B vs $1.48B est
CTAS (Cintas Corporation)
- EPS: $1.13 vs $1.06 est
- REV: $2.60B vs $2.61B est
MKC (McCormick & Company)
- EPS: $0.60 vs $0.64 est
- REV: $1.61B vs $1.61B est
PAYX (Paychex)
- EPS: $1.49 vs $1.48 est
- REV: $1.51B vs $1.51B est
DLTR (Dollar Tree)
- EPS: $2.29 vs $2.19 est
- REV: $8.24B vs $8.24B est
CHWY (Chewy)
- EPS: $0.28 vs $0.05 est
- REV: $3.25B vs $3.20B est
JEF (Jefferies Financial Group)
- EPS: 0.68 vs $0.88 est
- REV: $1.59B vs $1.86B est
What’s Happening Now
XLE SPDR Sector Fund – Energy
As April approaches, energy is the only sector clinging to returns in March, driven by strong showings from XOM, EQT, and HES. The bullish energy trend continues as SCHD recently reshuffled and now holds COP as its top holding with a 4.53% weighting. On the other hand, Buffett’s OXY is up against the indexes but continues to lag behind its peers. Meanwhile, semis and tech continue to sink, entering Q2 as 2025’s worst performers YTD.
MA Mastercard
While markets slip, Mastercard is holding up better than most, thanks to strong Q4 results and timely seasonal tailwinds. Revenue rose 16%, EPS topped estimates, and cross-border volume surged 20%. Now, MA enters one of its most consistent months, with April closing higher than March nine of the last ten years for an average gain of 4.2%. With momentum building, Mastercard may be setting up for another spring move.
NVDA Nvidia
As Mastercard heads into seasonal strength, Nvidia is staring down one of its weakest stretches of the year. The following two weeks have historically brought back-to-back losses, with seasonal headwinds front-loaded into Q1. Adding pressure, Microsoft recently scrapped data center projects totaling 2 gigawatts across the U.S. and Europe, raising concerns about future demand. With semis lagging in Q1, the question becomes whether or not Q2 will offer any relief.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming