Market Update Into March 2nd: AI Takes Over

It was a busy but ultimately range-bound week for the major indexes. $NVDA dropped its long-awaited earnings, financials came under pressure on AI disruption headlines, $NFLX popped after the Warner Bros. merger was officially terminated, and $XYZ surged following cuts to nearly 40% of its workforce. Despite the barrage of catalysts, the major indexes barely moved, with capital rotating back into metals and defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples. In other news:

• Rocket Lab Dumps
• Nvidia Growth Questioned
• MELI Loses Momentum
• HIMS Guidance Bomb

Looking ahead, the earnings calendar stays busy with $CRWD, $AVGO, and $MRVL all on deck. Traders will also be watching key employment data, the Fed’s Beige Book, and a slate of Fed speakers throughout the week. Let’s see how the indexes are looking.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY ended the week down slightly at $685.99 (-0.50%), continuing to chop within the same multi-month range. The ETF is now 27 days into a TTM squeeze while building a significant volume point of control over the last year, a setup that could fuel a strong directional trend once resolved. The question remains: which way does it break?

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

QQQ ended the week at $607.29 (-0.25%), holding up relatively well considering its largest holding, $NVDA, tanked nearly 7%. That said, the ETF has been trading below the same volume point of control for weeks now, signaling sellers remain in control. With AI disruptions continuing to rattle the tech sector, that positioning is hard to argue with.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

IWM lagged last week, closing down at $261.41 (-1.21%), even as small-caps continue to outperform on a longer time frame. The ETF is currently trading roughly 7% above its volume point of control, a level that also aligns directly with its 2021 all-time high pivot. Even if small-caps pull back from here, that confluence of support sits right beneath.

Earnings

Notable Results

SNOW (Snowflake)

• EPS: $0.32 vs $(0.10) est
• REV: $1.28B vs $1.25B est

CRM (Salesforce)

• EPS: $3.81 vs $2.69 est
• REV: $11.20B vs $11.18B est

AMT (American Tower)

• EPS: $2.63 vs $1.87 est
• REV: $2.74B vs $2.69B est

INTU (Intuit)

• EPS: $4.15 vs $3.10 est
• REV: $4.65B vs $4.53B est

SNPS (Synopsys)

• EPS: $3.77 vs $3.11 est
• REV: $2.41B vs $2.39B est

CRW (Unknown)

• EPS: ($0.56) vs ($0.65) est
• REV: $1.57B vs $1.53B est

DELL (Dell Technologies)

• EPS: $3.89 vs $3.44 est
• REV: $33.38B vs $31.77B est

NVDA (NVIDIA)

• EPS: $1.62 vs $1.50 est
• REV: $68.13B vs $65.90B est

HD (Home Depot)

• EPS: $2.72 vs $2.52 est
• REV: $38.20B vs $38.18B est

TD (Toronto-Dominion Bank)

• EPS: $1.75 vs $1.63 est
• REV: $11.90B vs $11.14B est

MNST (Monster Beverage)

• EPS: $0.51 vs $0.48 est
• REV: $2.13B vs $2.05B est

RY (Royal Bank of Canada)

• EPS: $2.93 vs $2.76 est
• REV: $12.88B vs $12.10B est

HSBC (HSBC)

• EPS: $1.85 vs $1.75 est
• REV: $16.40B vs $16.91B est

CEG (Constellation Energy)

• EPS: $2.30 vs $2.23 est
• REV: $6.07B vs $5.56B est

LOW (Lowe’s)

• EPS: $1.98 vs $1.95 est
• REV: $20.58B vs $20.35B est

MELI (MercadoLibre)

• EPS: $11.03 vs $11.57 est
• REV: $8.76B vs $8.49B est

WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery)

• EPS: ($0.10) vs $0.03 est
• REV: $9.46B vs $9.38B est

What’s Happening Now

NVDA Nvidia
Nvidia’s 73% YoY revenue growth is in a league of its own, more than triple its closest Big Tech peer, Meta, while leaving Apple and Microsoft in the dust. Staggering top-line expansion is fueled by a Data Center segment that now drives over 91% of total sales, and its Sovereign AI business has tripled to over $30 billion as nations join an arms race for domestic compute.

NEM Newmont
The world’s largest gold miner shows exceptional Seasonality in March, notching a 90% win-rate over the past ten years and an average +7.8% return. With gold rising above a historic $5,000 per ounce, NEM recently posted a significant double beat and is just inches from record highs. In a CNBC interview this week, Big Short investors Danny Moses and Vincent Daniel championed the bull thesis, saying that even with lower gold prices, “miners are a great place to be.”

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!