Market Update into March 24th: Buyers Defend Lows

The bulls were able to stop the bleeding this week as the March FOMC meeting delivered the expected result of no rate changes. However, updated projections showed less-than-ideal inflation and GDP forecasts, signaling a slightly more cautious economic outlook. Despite some intraday volatility around the announcement, markets failed to establish a meaningful direction. Price held the recent lows, but attempts at upside momentum fizzled quickly, leaving bulls wondering if a true bottom has formed.

• Gold’s Historic Surge
• Google Acquires Wiz
• Nvidia’s U.S. Expansion
• Fed Holds Rates

Next week’s PCE report will be the data point to watch, with the potential to confirm the Fed’s upward revisions to inflation expectations. After triple witching last week, new positioning could help fuel a shift in bullish momentum, especially as markets continue to consolidate near the lows. Let’s dive into the charts.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF triggered its first weekly bearish 8/21 EMA cross since the October 2023 correction, closing the week at $563.98 (+0.22%). This shift is clearly highlighted by the EMA Crossover Candle Colors Indicator, which paints candles red when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA. The last crossover in 2023 turned out to be a head fake, leaving traders now questioning if this is just another false alarm.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF ended the week at 480.84 (+0.25%), with its 8/21 EMA cross carrying more weight, considering the last one marked the beginning of a year-long bear market in 2022. With volatility compressed last week and key tech names under pressure, the signal adds to a growing list of warning signs that bearish momentum is brewing.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The IWM ETF closed the week at $203.79 (+0.46%), outperforming the large caps on a relative basis last week. However, the small-cap index has been a consistent laggard and has given back all of last year’s gains. It is now attempting to catch some support on a high-volume node in the volume profile but has yet to hold any sort of bullish momentum.

Earnings

Notable Results

MU (Micron Technology)

• EPS: $1.56  vs  $1.42 est
• REV: $8.05B  vs  $7.89B est

ACN (Accenture)

• EPS: $2.82  vs  $2.81 est
• REV: $16.66B  vs  $16.62B est

PDD (PDD Holdings)

• EPS: $2.76  vs  $2.56 est
• REV: $15.15M  vs  $15.68 est

NKE (Nike)

• EPS: $0.54  vs  $0.28 est
• REV: $11.27B  vs  $11.01B est

FDX (FedEx)

• EPS: $4.51  vs  $4.54 est
• REV: $22.20B  vs  $21.89B est

GIS (General Mills)

• EPS: $1.00  vs  $0.96 est
• REV: $4.84B  vs  $4.96B est

NIO (NIO)

• EPS: $(0.43)  vs  $(0.42) est
• REV: $2.70B  vs  $2.85B est

JBL (Jabil)

• EPS: $1.94  vs  $1.83 est
• REV: $6.73B  vs  $6.40B est

XPEV (XPeng)

• EPS: $(0.20)  vs  $(0.28) est
• REV: $2.21B  vs  $2.12B est

LEN (Lennar Corporation)

• EPS: $2.14  vs  $1.73 est
• REV: $7.63B  vs  $7.43B est

What’s Happening Now

XLE SPDR Sector Fund – Energy
Energy has emerged as the market’s leader, outperforming every other sector on a YTD and MTD basis. Rising oil prices, renewed drilling activity, and favorable policy tailwinds have contributed to the recent surge. Geopolitical tensions and shrinking supply have added urgency, pushing investors toward energy as a haven of relative strength while tech and consumer names continue to lead the market lower.

TSLA Tesla
Tesla has dropped as much as 55% as pressure builds from multiple fronts. Political backlash, softening demand, and disappointing earnings have weighed on sentiment. Q4 Net income fell over 70% YoY, margins narrowed, and annual deliveries declined for the first time in a decade. Analysts have become divided. Some have cut targets to $120, while bullish voices are starting to scale back expectations. Is Friday’s late rally a sign of turning tides?

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!