Market Update into March 17th: Capitulation or Continuation?

3 mins read

Despite cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings last week, markets continued to battle with persistent bearish momentum. Of course, this was fueled by the everlasting tariff headlines that continue to cause volatility and uncertainty for traders. While the week ended in the red, Friday’s relief bounce helped claw back some of the drawdown, leaving traders eyeing the next catalyst. In other news:

With markets whipsawing on headline-driven volatility, all eyes turn to the Fed next week as traders brace for the expected decision to hold rates steady and Jerome Powell’s remarks. The real question isn’t whether rates will change but how Powell’s tone will shape market sentiment. Let’s take a closer look at the price action.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF extended its losing streak, closing the week at $562.81 (-2.26%) and marking its fourth consecutive red candle. The GoNoGo Trend indicator, which tracks trend strength using color-coded candles, has turned neutral for the first time since October 2023. At the same time, SPY closed below the lower Bollinger Band, a rare event that has historically signaled a short-term reversal. With elevated RVOL hinting at capitulation, traders are watching closely for signs of stabilization and the next key support level.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF also extended its decline last week, closing at $479.66 (-2.46%). Similar to SPY, the GoNoGo Trend indicator flashed a neutral candle along with a weekly close below the lower Bollinger Band, a rare occurrence traders haven’t seen in over a year. Notably, QQQ recorded its highest weekly volume since early August, a dynamic not seen in its peers. While these signals have historically resulted in short-term bottoms, traders are left wondering if the elevated RVOL is showing signs of capitulation or if the downtrend is just getting started.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The IWM ETF cemented a strong downtrend as the GoNoGo Trend indicator flashed strong no go for the first time in months, closing the week at $202.89 (-1.48%). Unlike SPY and QQQ, which shifted to neutral, IWM has rapidly cycled through all five GoNoGo Trend signals in the past five weeks, moving from a strong bullish trend to its current strong bearish trend. It started the week already below the lower Bollinger Band and closed beneath it again, reinforcing bearish momentum. With high RVOL signaling intense selling pressure, traders are watching closely to see if oversold conditions spark a relief bounce or if downside continuation is ahead.

Earnings

Notable Results

ADBE (Adobe)

EPS: $5.08 vs $4.97 est
REV: $5.71B vs $5.66B est

ORCL (Oracle)

EPS: $1.47 vs $1.49 est
REV: $14.10B vs $14.39B est

FERG (Ferguson Enterprises)

EPS: $1.52 vs $2.60 est
REV: $6.87B vs $6.76B est

DKS (Dick’s Sporting Goods)

EPS: $3.62 vs $3.53 est
REV: $3.89B vs $3.78B est

DG (Dollar General)

EPS: $0.87 vs $1.51 est
REV: $10.30B vs $10.26B est

ULTA (Ulta Beauty)

EPS: $8.46 vs $7.14 est
REV: $3.49B vs $3.46B est

DOCU (DocuSign)

EPS: $0.86 vs $0.85 est
REV: $776.30M vs $761.31M est

LI (Li Auto)

EPS: $0.52 vs $0.34 est
REV: $6.07B vs $6.76B est

What’s Happening Now

QQQ Nasdaq 100
The QQQ has dropped 11% from all-time highs, slipping just below the 200-day EMA for the first time since March 2023. While the technicals look weak, seasonality paints a different picture. The coming weeks have historically been a period of strength, posting a 75% win rate and the third-best average weekly return of the year. If a rebound is coming, history suggests this may be the time.

SPY S&P 500
So far in 2025, a clear seasonal pattern has shaped the S&P 500. Mondays have been the weakest day, averaging -0.68%, closing green only 38% of the time. On the other hand, Wednesdays stand out with an 80% win rate and the highest average return. The playbook? Buy Monday’s dip, sell into Wednesday’s strength, and expect a pullback into Thursday before a mixed Friday. QQQ has followed a similar pattern but with even sharper swings.

ADBE Adobe
Adobe posted record Q1 revenue of $5.71B (+10% YoY) and EPS of $5.08 (+13% YoY), fueled by Creative Cloud growth and AI integration. Despite strong results, meek guidance raised concerns about AI monetization and increasing competition, sending shares lower. While ADBE retained 11 buy ratings, every analyst cut price targets, and a bear emerged as KeyBanc downgraded the stock to a sell with a $390 target, in line with current levels.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!