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06/28/2024 |

Market Update Into June 30th: June Is In The Books

Another month is in the books, and what a month we’ve had! The SPY and QQQ both made powerful moves higher but stalled out at important Fibonacci levels. The small caps look constructive, with multiple months of tightening price action suggesting a big move is on the horizon. In other news:

  • Volkswagen invests in RIVN
  • CMG 50:1 stock split
  • Crypto majors bounce
  • Biden & Trump duke it out
  • FDX shareholders rejoice

Will asset prices continue to rise like the summer temperatures, or will July bring a new regime for stocks? Perhaps a rotation is afoot. Let’s dig into the charts and see how things are shaping up!

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

After several months of consolidation, the SPY ETF pushed decisively higher, closing the month at $544.22 (+3.17%). When pushing into all-time highs, there are few indicators to act as resistance, so traders must look to Fibonacci extensions, and that’s exactly where the price stalled out this month; at the 1.5 Fib extension from the January 2022 high.

This is a monthly chart of the SPY index.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

It was impossible to deny the strength of the QQQ ETF this month. Like the SPY, multiple months of sideways price action resolved higher, resulting in a monthly close at $479.11 (+6.29%). Resistance was found at the 1.5 Fibonacci Extension from the late 2021 highs, a key level to push past in the months to come.

This is a monthly chart of the QQQ index.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

While the IWM ETF isn’t showing nearly the strength of its counterparts, the price continues to consolidate at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high. Despite ending this month on a down note at $202.89 (-1.39%), the double inside candle setup on the monthly chart appears poised for a strong directional move as the summer kicks into gear.

This is a monthly chart of the IWM index.

Earnings

This is an image of all the important earnings results this week.

Notable Results

NKE (Nike)

  • EPS: $1.01  vs  $0.85 est
  • SALES: $12.60B  vs  $12.91B est

MKC (McCormick)

  • EPS: $0.69  vs  $0.59 est
  • SALES: $1.64B  vs  $1.63B est

 WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance)

  • EPS: $0.63  vs  $0.71 est
  • SALES: $36.35B  vs  $36.00B est

MU (Micron)

  • EPS: $0.62  vs  $0.49 est
  • SALES: $6.81B  vs  $6.63B est

FDX (FedEx)

  • EPS: $5.41  vs  $5.37 est
  • SALES: $22.10B  vs  $22.06B est

BB (BlackBerry)

  • EPS: $(0.03)  vs  $(0.04) est
  • SALES: $144.00M  vs  $134.05M est

LEVI (Levi Strauss)

  • EPS: $0.16  vs  $0.11 est
  • SALES: $1.44B  vs  $1.45B est

FIZZ (National Beverage)

  • EPS: $0.53  vs  $0.53 est
  • SALES: $324.0B  vs  $327.7B est

CCL (Carnival Corp)

  • EPS: $0.11  vs  $(0.02) est
  • SALES: $5.78B  vs  $5.68B est

GIS (General Mills)

  • EPS: $1.01  vs  $0.99 est
  • SALES: $4.71B  vs  $4.85B est

What’s Happening Now

GOOGL (Google)

Google does not share the same indecision in July as the broader market, boating an impressive 93% win rate with an average return of over 8.8% for 15 years running. The only blemish? — a 1.35% decline in 2014.

This is a monthly seasonality chart for GOOGL.

SPX (S&P 500)

Filtering SPX seasonality back to the 1970s for exclusively election years, we get to see an interesting picture. July carries a losing win rate but a positive average return, presenting an asymmetrical risk profile, while August bears the most fruitful returns ahead of election time.

This is a monthly seasonality chart of $SPX.

XLE (SPDR Select Energy)

Last week’s S&P 500 seasonality suggested slow action and muted returns, and the market did not disappoint. The rotation into value stocks saw the energy sector as the biggest beneficiary, with Buffett’s OXY stake appreciating over $432,000,000.

This is a market map of all the major sectors.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter