Markets started the week with a modest rally, but sentiment quickly turned as President Trump’s escalating rhetoric toward Iran heightened geopolitical risk. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, maintaining a data-dependent stance and providing little clarity, causing the markets to trade sideways. Markets were closed Thursday for Juneteenth, but Friday’s triple-witching options expiration brought selling pressure, leaving the markets to end flat for the week.
With the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE) due Friday and Powell’s House testimony midweek, next week could shape expectations for rate cuts going forward. Now that June’s monthly OPEX is in the rearview, traders will soon discover whether fresh positioning favors the bulls or if caution still rules the tape. Let’s dive into the charts.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
The SPY ETF closed the week lower at $594.28 (-0.45%) as rising geopolitical risks pressured risk appetite. A bearish RSI divergence is emerging while price clings to key support at the 8/21 EMA cloud, which aligns with a prominent high-volume node. If this bearish divergence plays out, the unfilled gap below stands out as the next likely downside target.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
QQQ ended the week relatively flat at $526.83 (-0.03%), as many of the big tech names like $NVDA and $MSFT finished in the green. Despite the ETF holding strong, a war catalyst could trigger a further rotation out of risk assets into safe havens and oil, potentially causing the bearish RSI divergence to play out. For bulls, the key test lies at the volume shelf and the 8/21 EMA cloud. If these support levels fail, the bears could take control and target the gap below.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
Small caps remained resilient this week as the IWM ETF closed at $209.21 (+0.14%). With large-caps near all-time highs, investors may be looking to diversify as the IWM sits at a high volume node and EMA cloud support. The ETF has already filled its gap below and does not have a bearish RSI divergence, potentially giving bulls a bit more confidence that these support levels will hold.
Earnings
Notable Results
APPS (Digital Turbine)
- EPS: $0.10 vs $0.04 est
- REV: $119.152M vs $116.640M est
CODA (Coda Octopus Group)
- EPS: $0.08 vs $0.00 est
- REV: $7.017M vs $4.460M est
RFIL (RF Industries)
- EPS: $0.07 vs $0.04 est
- REV: $18.900M vs $17.240M est
RNWW (ReNew Energy Global)
- EPS: $0.10 vs $0.07 est
- REV: $340.00M vs $291.800M est
ESEA (Euroseas)
- EPS: $3.76 vs $3.10 est
- REV: $56.346M vs $53.830M est
KMX (CarMax, Inc.)
- EPS: $1.38 vs $1.17 est
- REV: $7.547B vs $7.530B est
JBL (Jabil)
- EPS: $2.55 vs $2.32 est
- REV: $7.828B vs $7.070B est
WLY (John Wiley & Sons, Inc.)
- EPS: $1.37 vs $1.27 est
- REV: $442.579M vs $435.000M est
ACN (Accenture)
- EPS: $3.49 vs $3.32 est
- REV: $17.700B vs $17.320B est
DRI (Darden Restaurants)
- EPS: $2.98 vs $2.97 est
- REV: $3.271B vs $3.260B est
LZB (La-Z-Boy)
- EPS: $0.92 vs $0.93 est
- REV: $571.00M vs $557.440M est
LEN (Lennar Corporation)
- EPS: $1.90 vs $1.94 est
- REV: $8.378B vs $8.190B est
SWBI (Smith & Wesson Brands)
- EPS: $0.20 vs $0.30 est
- REV: $140.800M vs $153.710M est
HITI (High Tide)
- EPS: ($0.03) vs ($0.02) est
- REV: $96.939M vs $96.730M est
AIOT (Alliance MMA)
- EPS: $0.02 vs $0.04 est
- REV: $103.638M vs $103.810M est
ACB (Aurora Cannabis)
- EPS: ($0.24) vs $0.11 est
- REV: $63.070M vs $62.040M est
GMS (GMS Inc.)
- EPS: $1.29 vs $1.11 est
- REV: $1.333B vs $1.300B est
KR (The Kroger Co.)
- EPS: $1.49 vs $1.46 est
- REV: $45.12B vs $45.310B est
What’s Happening Now
UNH UnitedHealth Group
UNH is down nearly 40% YTD, battered by guidance cuts, CEO fallout, and a DOJ probe. Yet lawmakers kept buying. With nineteen purchases by Congress so far in 2025 (most now deeply underwater), it appears conviction remains elevated. With P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA all near-decade lows, the setup looks contrarian. Is this political pain an opportunity for long-term gain or a front-row seat to a value trap?
GOOG Alphabet
GOOG tends to stumble into early July, with late June posting one of the weakest win rates of the year. But the setup flips fast. The first half of July marks GOOG’s strongest back-to-back stretch and hosts Google’s top-performing period, leading all other weeks in both win rate and average return since IPO. This rally solidifies July as GOOG’s top-performing month, closing higher than June 82% of the time, with an average return of 7.1%.
AAPL Apple
Apple has been under pressure in 2025, trailing peers like NVDA and MSFT as investor confidence grows thinner. But July could mark a turning point. Over the past 15 years, AAPL has closed higher in July 93% of the time with a 7.2% average return. That makes it the strongest month by far. With sentiment low and seasonality high, Apple may look to remind markets it still belongs in the $3T conversation.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming