Market Update Into June 16th: Global Tensions Rising

3 mins read

Markets started the week on a bullish note ahead of key inflation data, with both CPI and PPI coming in softer than expected on the monthly front, reinforcing the disinflation trend. However, annual CPI ticked up to 2.4%, just above April’s 2.3%, leaving traders cautious. That caution turned to anxiety Thursday night when Israel launched a direct strike on Iranian nuclear and military sites, sending futures plummeting overnight and wiping out earlier weekly gains. Still, consumer sentiment surged to its highest level in months, signaling underlying economic resilience.

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to the FOMC’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. With the market closed Thursday for Juneteenth, traders will be positioning early in a shortened week. Will the Fed lean dovish in the face of cooling data, or stay cautious amid persistent inflationary pressures? Let’s dive into the charts.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY closed the week lower at $597.00 (-0.34%) as geopolitical tensions escalated with the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran. The recent peak coincided with a signal from TrendSpider CEO Dan Ushman’s custom QX QSB Score Markers Indicator, which integrates data from 14 technical indicators to identify overbought and oversold conditions. With 8 of the 14 signaling oversold territory, traders should watch closely to see if the high-volume node below can provide meaningful support.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF also ended the week in the red at $526.96 (-0.56%), but with a bit more optimistic signal from the QX QSB Score Markers Indicator. Only 5 of the 14 component indicators registered overbought conditions, suggesting tech may be showing relatively stronger momentum. Still, with global tensions elevated and a gap aligning with the 200-day SMA just below, bears could find an opening to press the index lower.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small caps took the hardest hit this week, with the IWM ETF closing at $208.89 (-1.41%). The index was firmly rejected at the 200-day SMA, coinciding with a 9-handle on the QX QSB Score Markers Indicator, making it the most bearish signal among the major indexes. With price now testing its YTD volume point of control, it’s up to the bulls to put in another higher low and flip prior resistance into support.

Earnings

Notable Results

ADBE (Adobe)

EPS: $5.06 vs $4.96 est
REV: $5.87B vs $5.79B est

ORCL (Oracle)

EPS: $1.70 vs $1.64 est
REV: $15.90B vs $15.58B est

CHWY (Chewy)

EPS: $0.35 vs $0.34 est
REV: $3.12B vs $3.08B est

GME (GameStop)

EPS: $0.17 vs $0.04 est
REV: $732.40M vs $754.24M est

RH (RH)

EPS: $0.13 vs $(0.09) est
REV: $813.95M vs $818.12M est

PLAY (Dave & Busters)

EPS: $0.76 vs $1.01 est
REV: $567.70M vs $565.00M est

VSCO (Victoria’s Secret)

EPS: $0.09 vs $0.09 est
REV: $1.352B vs $1.350B est

GTLB (GitLab)

EPS: $0.17 vs $0.15 est
REV: $214.51M vs $213.21M est

What’s Happening Now

XLE SPDR Sector – Energy
Rising tensions in the Middle East sent oil prices surging this week, with WTI crude jumping more than 7% after reports of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Energy stocks followed suit, pushing XLE to the top of the leaderboard this week, with only healthcare outperforming over the past month. Meanwhile, financials and small caps dragged the market lower as all major indexes slipped.

GME GameStop
GameStop’s core business continues to shrink, but profits are back. Revenue fell nearly 17% year over year, missing estimates, while EPS beat at 17 cents for a third straight quarter. Cash reserves surged to $6.4 billion after a massive convertible debt raise. The company is leaner and more profitable. However, dilution and volatility risks remain elevated as it pivots toward Bitcoin and digital assets.

AMZN Amazon
Amazon enters one of its strongest seasonal stretches of the year. Weeks 25 (next week) through 28 show a steady climb in win rates and returns, peaking in week 28 with an 87% win rate and a 3.9% average gain. With recent momentum building and historical seasonality aligning, this four-week window could offer bulls a favorable setup before strength sharply fades into July.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!