Markets were volatile last week as inflation came in hot, the Iran situation continued to whipsaw traders, $ADBE and $ORCL sold off despite earnings beats, and $SPCX made history as the largest IPO ever. Semis and tech sold off hard midweek as the hot CPI print and Iran headlines hit simultaneously. By Thursday, the mood had shifted as a final U.S.-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz appeared imminent amid conflicting reports, sending oil lower and easing inflation fears into this week. $SPCX surging +19% on its IPO debut Friday along with a strong consumer sentiment print helped boost sentiment into the weekend. In other news:
Looking ahead, Wednesday at 2pm EST marks Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair, with rates 98% likely to remain unchanged. A hawkish Dot Plot is expected, though a signed Iran deal could soften the Fed’s tone on energy-driven inflation. Traders will also be watching $SPCX‘s ability to hold its IPO gains and how semis respond after bouncing off mid-week lows. Let’s see how the indexes are looking.
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
$SPY ended the week at $741.75 (+0.57%), bouncing off the top of the 9/21 EMA cloud and holding the Go signal from GoNoGo TrendPro that fired back in April. Momentum is showing early signs of fading, with the candle shifting from blue to aqua just as multiple red countertrend markers appeared at recent highs. As long as $SPY holds the cloud, the trend stays intact. Momentum just needs to catch up.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
$QQQ closed the week at $721.34 (+2.31%) on its strongest volume in months, a notable shift after several weeks of thin buying. The ETF bounced cleanly off 9/21 EMA cloud support, with the volume surge coinciding with the Nasdaq rebalance and $ADBE earnings. The key question heading into next week: how does $QQQ absorb $SPCX if it fast-tracks into the Nasdaq-100 as early as June 27?
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
$IWM was the strongest index last week, closing at $292.95 (+4.01%) even as inflation came in at a 3-year high. The Multi-Length Alignment Oscillator remains firmly positive, with GoNoGo TrendPro candles holding aqua as momentum cools off recent highs. Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting this week is the next big test for rate-sensitive small-caps.
Earnings
Notable Results
MH (McGraw Hill)
- EPS: $1.40 vs $0.74 est
- REV: $669.187M vs — est
CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store)
- EPS: $0.29 vs ($0.46) est
- REV: $797.367M vs $776.420M est
MH (McGraw Hill)
- EPS: $0.32 vs $0.17 est
- REV: $463.722M vs $440.041M est
SFIX (Stitch Fix)
- EPS: ($0.01) vs ($0.05) est
- REV: $340.277M vs $333.461M est
CASY (Casey’s General Stores)
- EPS: $4.37 vs $3.32 est
- REV: $4.572B vs $4.352B est
SAIL (SailPoint Technologies)
- EPS: $0.05 vs $0.04 est
- REV: $280.142M vs $276.118M est
CNM (Core & Main)
- EPS: $0.72 vs $0.59 est
- REV: $1.910B vs $1.899B est
ORCL (Oracle)
- EPS: $2.11 vs $1.89 est
- REV: $19.184B vs $19.091B est
CHWY (Chewy)
- EPS: $0.43 vs $0.39 est
- REV: $3.357B vs $3.352B est
GHM (Graham Corporation)
- EPS: $0.33 vs $0.30 est
- REV: $67.078M vs $59.986M est
ADBE (Adobe)
- EPS: $5.96 vs $5.60 est
- REV: $6.618B vs $6.453B est
LEN (Lennar Corporation)
- EPS: $1.31 vs $1.24 est
- REV: $7.940B vs $8.074B est
SJM (The J.M. Smucker Company)
- EPS: $2.77 vs $2.64 est
- REV: $2.268B vs $2.263B est
CPB (Campbell Soup Company)
- EPS: $0.50 vs $0.48 est
- REV: $2.366B vs $2.384B est
RH (RH)
- EPS: ($1.97) vs ($2.04) est
- REV: $800.328M vs $792.215M est
UNFI (United Natural Foods)
- EPS: $0.77 vs $0.78 est
- REV: $7.723B vs $7.819B est
MTN (Vail Resorts)
- EPS: $8.81 vs $8.99 est
- REV: $1.205B vs $1.209B est
FCEL (FuelCell Energy)
- EPS: ($0.53) vs ($0.46) est
- REV: $35.589M vs $40.631M est
What’s Happening Now
RKLB Rocket Lab
The broader space exploration sector “sold the news” heavily this week as SPCX launched, despite its strong ascent this year. The UFO Space ETF, used as a proxy, rose 75% before pulling back to nearly 40% gains year-to-date. While SpaceX’s mega-listing hypes expectations for space as a multi-trillion-dollar addressable market, it has recently pulled air from both payload partners such as LUNR, which uses SpaceX rockets for its lunar landers, and direct competitors such as RKLB, which lists SPCX as its primary competitor for launch vehicles in its filings.
NVDA Nvidia
Upon launch, SpaceX is valued at ~$2.2 trillion on just $18.67 billion in revenue for 2025. For perspective, NVDA, the ultimate AI growth darling, trades at one-fifth of SPCX’s 117x Price-to-Sales multiple. However, SpaceX’s recently-disclosed contract to rent 110,000 Nvidia GPUs to Google adds nearly $11 billion annualized, showing SpaceX is more than a “space exploration” company and that AI business lines can significantly compress valuation multiples
XLP Consumer Staples Sector
A classic sector rotation has emerged month-to-date, even after this week’s risk-on rally fueled by U.S.-Iran resolution headlines and the historic SpaceX listing. Investors actively took profits in mega-cap tech and growth (XLY, XLK, QQQ) and reallocated capital into typically-defensive sectors such as staples (XLP), healthcare (XLV), and value-oriented financials (XLF) which have all outperformed sharply. No longer relying on a handful of tech giants for gains, the broadening may represent a healthier market foundation for the year ahead.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
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