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07/05/2024 |

Market Update Into July 8th: Fireworks Across The Markets

If there were a week in the markets to expect fireworks, this one would be it, so it’s no surprise to see yet another explosive rally from the major indexes. After all, what’s more patriotic than celebrating our independence with new all-time highs? In other news;

While many market participants likely took advantage of the shortened holiday week to enjoy some time away from the screens, earnings season kicks off next week with JPM, BAC, DAL, and more reporting. Will volatility be back on the menu soon? Let’s dig into the charts and see how we’re positioned.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

Is it time for the SPY ETF to finally break out of the long-term rising wedge? It sure feels like it, as the index closed the week at an all-time high of $554.64 (+1.91%). Giving weight to a continuation higher is the bullish MACD cross in tandem with the price closing above the upper Bollinger Band.

This is a daily chart of the SPY index.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

After several sessions of consolidation above the top of the long-term rising wedge, the QQQ ETF achieved a proper lift-off this week, closing at an all-time high of $496.16 (+3.56%). The bullish MACD cross and the close above the upper Bollinger Band suggest just how strong this index is right now.

This is a daily chart of the QQQ index.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The small caps appear to be in a bit of trouble, as the week began with the price getting rejected at the bottom of the long-term rising wedge and concluded with a close near the lows at $200.87 (-1.00%). Last week’s bullish MACD cross seems to be on the verge of a reversal, and with the Bollinger Bands tightening, this index could see some real volatility soon.

This is a daily chart of the IWM index.

Earnings

This is an image of all the most important earnings from this week and next week.

Notable Results

STZ (Constellation Brands)

  • EPS: $3.57  vs  $3.46 est 
  • REV: $2.66B  vs  $2.67B est

MSM (MSC Industrial Direct)

  • EPS: $1.33  vs  $1.34 est
  • REV: $979M  vs  $982B est

DAL (Delta Air Lines) – 07/11

  • EPS Estimate:  $2.37
  • REV Estimate: $15.50B

PEP (Pepsi) – 07/11

  • Estimate:  $2.16
  • REV Estimate: $22.69B

C (Citigroup) – 07/12

  • EPS Estimate:  $1.43
  • REV Estimate: $20.08B

WFC (Wells Fargo) – 07/12

  • EPS Estimate:  $1.27
  • REV Estimate: $20.24B

JPM (JPMorgan) – 07/12

  • EPS Estimate:  $4.62
  • REV Estimate: $43.88B

BK (BNY Mellon) – 07/12

  • EPS Estimate:  $1.41
  • REV Estimate: $4.51B

What’s Happening Now

AAPL (Apple)

Apple is on an impressive 9-year winning streak in July, gaining every year since 2015 with an average return of 6.94%. So far, 2024 has been no exception. Just seven days into the month, Apple has already advanced over 6%.

This is an image of Apple's monthly seasonality chart.

AMZN (Amazon)

If you think nine years is impressive, how about twelve? Next week marks Amazon’s most dominant period of the year, boasting the highest win rate and average return. Over just five days, Amazon typically rallies an impressive 4.73%.

This is a weekly seasonality chart for AMZN.

NVDA (NVIDIA)

Fishing for investment ideas? Q2 insider sales reveal a clear trend: they’re offloading high-return stocks with inflated book value multiples but snapping up stocks trading at or near book, but have lagged the broader market. These names are a great place to hunt for undervalued gems.

This is a bubble chart of recent insider sales.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter