Market Update Into July 7th: Blue Skies Above

Markets celebrated the 4th of July early this week with the S&P 500 finishing at yet another all-time high, shrugging off some mixed economic data and trade tensions. A surprise ADP employment report miss of -33,000 jobs, followed by a drop in the unemployment rate, caused confusion in the labor market. Meanwhile, the White House unveiled a Vietnam trade deal that imposes 20% tariffs on imports and threatened new levies on Japan and the EU, bringing fresh uncertainty to the global economy. Despite all this news, the markets continued to rise heading into the long 4th of July weekend.

• Microsoft Cuts Deep
• Trump Vietnam Tariffs
• Hiring Momentum Slips
• Tesla Subsidy Showdown

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to the FOMC minutes midweek for further clues on the Fed’s path, as well as fresh jobless claims and Fed speeches that could stir rate expectations. Will the bulls extend their dominance, or does a summer slowdown lie ahead? Let’s see what the charts are telling us.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF hit another all-time high this week, closing at 624.97 (+5.09%) with zero signs of bearish momentum. Zooming out and looking at the quarterly chart, we see a massive Q2 2025 candle with the SPY bouncing off its 2021 resistance, which is now acting as support. With the MACD continuing to push and a new quarterly candle gap, bulls remain in full control.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Even as tech heavyweights like Tesla and Meta stumbled, the QQQ ETF surged to fresh all-time highs, closing at $555.75 (+5.50%). The quarterly 8/21 EMA cloud, which has been green for more than a decade, once again acted as a springboard, with Q2’s brief dip into the cloud quickly bought up. With no clear resistance overhead, traders are watching for potential resistance levels as this momentum plays out.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small-caps roared higher this week, with the IWM closing at $223.08 (+5.35%) as the Russell 2000 continues to defend its 2022 lows. With rate cut bets fueling rotation and the quarterly MACD flirting with a bullish cross, traders are eyeing a potential breakout to all-time highs that could finally bring small-caps in line with their large-cap counterparts.

Earnings

Notable Results

FIZZ (National Beverage)

• EPS: $0.48 vs $0.48 est
• REV: $314.00M vs $303.26M est

FC (Franklin Covey)

• EPS: $(0.11) vs $(0.08) est
• REV: $67.12M vs $67.35M est

UNF (UniFirst)

• EPS: $2.17 vs $2.09 est
• REV: $610.78M vs $614.50M est

STZ (Constellation Brands)

• EPS: $3.22 vs $3.29 est
• REV: $2.52B vs $2.56B est

GBX (Greenbrier Companies)

• EPS: $1.86 vs $0.99 est
• REV: $842.70M vs $785.72M est

RDUS (Radius Global Infrastructure)

• EPS: $(0.39) vs $(0.67) est
• REV: $727.00M vs $696.32M est

MSM (MSC Industrial)

• EPS: $1.08 vs $1.03 est
• REV: $971.14M vs $969.19M est

PRGS (Progress Software)

• EPS: $1.40 vs $1.30 est
• REV: $237.35M vs $237.23M est

What’s Happening Now

QQQ Nasdaq-100
Tech has its strongest seasonal stretch on deck. July has been QQQ’s top month over the past 15 years, with a 94% win rate and a 4.0% average return. But the runway narrows quickly from there. August softens, and September turns outright negative. If history repeats, the coming weeks may offer bulls one last clean window before seasonal headwinds start to return.

GOOG Alphabet
Google tends to shine early in July. Over the past 15 years, GOOGL has posted gains in 80% of first weeks and 79% of second weeks, averaging over 2% returns in each. These two stand as its most robust weeks of the year. While reliability fades in the back half of the month, average gains remain solid throughout. Early July has been the sweet spot for seasonal strength.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!