Market Update Into July 28th: Summer Melt-Up Continues

3 mins read

Major U.S. indexes pushed to new all-time highs last week as President Donald Trump struck a major trade deal with Japan, sending Japanese automakers flying on the news. Trump also paid a visit to Fed Chair Powell at the $3.1 billion Fed building renovation, where the two sparred over policy and Trump pushed for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, earnings from tech giants $TSLA and $GOOGL were mixed, with Tesla’s sales slumping while Alphabet topped expectations on both revenue and EPS. You can read more in these stories from last week:

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to the July FOMC event for clues on when the Fed might move to cut rates. Markets will also be watching for progress on U.S.-EU trade deals and another wave of earnings from mega-caps like $AAPL and $AMZN. Let’s see how the charts look.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF extended its rally last week, closing at $637.10 (+1.52%). Now trading +8.5% above its 200-day moving average and sitting at new all-time highs, bears are nowhere to be found. The Chande Absolute Trend Strength (CHATS) Indicator has been flashing a strong uptrend signal since SPY broke into record territory, and the momentum remains intact as price approaches the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ closed near its all-time high last week at $566.37 (+0.91%), slightly trailing the S&P 500 last week. The index is trading about 11.3% above its 200-day moving average, roughly three percentage points more extended than the SPY’s 8.5%. Mixed tech earnings from Netflix, Google, and Tesla are starting to weigh on momentum, and with another wave of reports on deck next week, the Nasdaq-100’s ability to sustain its lead will be put to the test.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

With small caps in focus ahead of the FOMC rate decision, the IWM ETF closed higher at $224.38 (+0.93%). Unlike its large-cap peers, IWM is hovering just 3.8% above its 200-day moving average, leaving more room to run if momentum picks up. With the CHATS indicator beginning to flash green and a major policy catalyst on deck, next week could spark fresh volatility in the small-cap space.

Earnings

Notable Results

TSLA (Tesla)

EPS: $0.40 vs $0.42 est
REV: $22.50B vs $22.79B est

GOOGL (Alphabet)

EPS: $2.31 vs $2.16 est
REV: $96.43B vs $93.72B est

NOW (ServiceNow)

EPS: $4.09 vs $3.57 est
REV: $3.22B vs $3.12B est

KO (Coca-Cola)

EPS: $0.87 vs $0.83 est
REV: $12.50B vs $12.54B est

LMT (Lockheed Martin)

EPS: $7.29 vs $6.54 est
REV: $18.16B vs $18.63B est

T (AT&T)

EPS: $0.54 vs $0.52 est
REV: $30.80B vs $30.45B est

TXN (Texas Instruments)

EPS: $1.41 vs $1.33 est
REV: $4.45B vs $4.33B est

VZ (Verizon)

EPS: $1.22 vs $1.19 est
REV: $34.50B vs $33.57B est

GM (General Motors)

EPS: $2.53 vs $2.40 est
REV: $47.12B vs $45.57B est

PM (Philip Morris)

EPS: $1.91 vs $1.86 est
REV: $10.14B vs $10.32B est

SAP (SAP SE)

EPS: $1.70 vs $1.47 est
REV: $10.23B vs $9.11B est

ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)

EPS: $2.19 vs $1.93 est
REV: $2.44B vs $2.35B est

HON (Honeywell)

EPS: $2.75 vs $2.65 est
REV: $10.35B vs $10.02B est

What’s Happening Now

SPY S&P 500

The S&P 500 just wrapped its most seasonally bullish month of the past 20 years. July once again lived up to its reputation, finishing green 80% of the time historically, but the road ahead gets bumpier. August and September carry far weaker seasonality trends, with September standing out as the worst month for the index, positive just 53% of the time, with an average decline of -0.72%. With the S&P 500 sitting at all-time highs as July closes, this is a key datapoint traders can’t afford to ignore.

AMD Advanced Micro Devices

Speaking of seasonality, AMD is heading into one of its strongest months since going public 50 years ago. Historically, the stock has been positive in August 61% of the time with an average gain of +5.16%. Coming off an exceptional month, if this trend holds, AMD could be setting up to challenge new all-time highs sooner rather than later.

GOOGL Alphabet

Alphabet delivered a blowout earnings report, posting 13.79% revenue growth and 22.22% EPS growth year over year. The results triggered a wave of analyst upgrades, with price targets ranging from $205 to $232 per share. At the high end, the most bullish estimates imply roughly 20% upside from Friday’s close.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!