Market Update Into July 27th: Look Out Below

3 mins read

Markets stayed choppy this week, with tech taking the brunt of the damage as rising oil prices and yields weighed on the broader tape. Oil became the story again, briefly pushing toward triple digits as conflict in the Middle East continued. Earnings offered little relief, with the market punishing the wrong setups: $TSLA missed on EPS despite a revenue beat and dropped more than 10% the next day, while $GOOGL crushed EPS estimates by more than 300% but still failed to save sentiment around big tech after revealing its first-ever negative FCF quarter, driven by heavy capex. $INTC jumped after hours on a double beat Thursday, then gave back the entire move Friday. In other news:

Looking ahead, markets face a packed week. The Fed delivers its rate decision Wednesday, followed by Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data Thursday. Earnings season also hits full speed, with $MSFT, $META, $AAPL, and $AMZN all set to report as investors scrutinize AI spending and capex. With oil, yields, and big tech driving the tape, let’s see how the charts are setting up.

SPY S&P 500
SPY closed the week lower at $738.86 (-1.095%), stalling just below a fresh swing high as the weekly MACD confirmed a bearish cross. CHATS remains green, keeping the broader trend intact even as momentum cools. Price is still well above the anchored VWAP from the 2026 lows, but with resistance holding overhead and momentum rolling over, next week’s earnings slate becomes the deciding factor.

QQQ Nasdaq-100
The Q’s led the major indexes lower again this week, closing at $684.22 (-2.569%) and breaking below the anchored VWAP from the 2026 lows for the first time. The weekly MACD has confirmed a bearish cross, though CHATS remains green, signaling that underlying trend strength has not fully broken. Reclaiming the aVWAP is now the first job for bulls heading into a heavy week of mega-cap earnings.

IWM Russell-2000
IWM closed the week at $291.19 (-1.281%), continuing to cool off as rising yields pressured the rate-sensitive small-cap space. The weekly MACD is approaching a bearish cross, but price is still holding well above the anchored VWAP from the 2026 lows, while CHATS remains green. With small caps typically among the first to break when risk appetite fades, that resilience through the pullback remains one of the more encouraging signals on the board heading into next week.

Notable Results

Notable Results

GOOG (Alphabet Inc.)

EPS: $9.11 vs $2.88 est
REV: $119.79B vs $113.63B est

TMUS (T-Mobile)

EPS: $2.99 vs $2.58 est
REV: $22.79B vs $22.97B est

IBM (International Business Machines)

EPS: $2.93 vs $3.02 est
REV: $17.16B vs $17.86B est

INTC (Intel)

EPS: $0.42 vs $0.19 est
REV: $16.12B vs $14.39B est

AXP (American Express)

EPS: $4.53 vs $4.40 est
REV: $19.63B vs $19.65B est

TSLA (Tesla)

EPS: $0.33 vs $0.44 est
REV: $28.23B vs $25.23B est

What’s Happening Now

GOOG Alphabet Inc.
GOOG’s massive $195–$205 billion in 2026 CapEx budget is biting into its cash pile, driving Q2 2026 free cash flow negative for the first time in history. Although Alphabet’s Cloud revenue skyrocketed 82% to $24B, backed by a customer backlog climbing to $514B, the tech giant is aggressively trading short-term cash for long-term AI supremacy via heavy infra buildouts.

TSLA Tesla
Tesla plunged below a $1 trillion market valuation this week, weighed down by its first reported negative free cash flow since 2024. TSLA is gearing up to spend a staggering $25 billion in 2026 CapEx, and similar to other Big Tech spenders such as GOOG, is trading today’s liquidity for tomorrow’s AI dominance. While its vehicle margins narrow, Tesla is bleeding billions to fund bets on Robotaxis, Optimus robots, and colossal chip fabs.

GOOG Alphabet Inc.
Alphabet sold off sharply after earnings last week, and the calendar offers little relief. Over the past 12 years, next week has closed higher just 25% of the time, with an average return of -0.8%, making it the stock’s weakest seasonal stretch. GOOG is now sitting directly on its 200-day EMA near $318, turning that level into the line to hold as investors weigh strong AI demand against the cost of its massive buildout.

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