Market Update Into January 6th: 2025 Has Arrived

3 mins read

With 2024 now behind us, 2025 has kicked off with a strong start. This week, all three major indexes tested their mid-December lows before rebounding sharply on Friday, reigniting optimism among beleaguered bulls. While the market’s recovery remains tentative, the passing of tax-loss selling season and anticipation of the Trump inauguration in just a few weeks have fueled hopes that the bull market may regain momentum as the new year unfolds. In other news:

Just over two years have passed since the October 2022 bear market lows, and while the major indexes have made significant strides since then, history suggests this bull market may just be getting started. Let’s take a closer look at how the major indexes performed in 2024, analyzing the year’s gains across yearly, quarterly, and monthly timeframes.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF emerged as the top dollar gainer in 2024, adding an impressive $113.41 per share to close the year at $586.02 (+23.99%). However, Q4 delivered the most modest gains of the year, with the index advancing just +2.2%. December stood out as one of only three red months in 2024, alongside October and April, tempering what was otherwise a standout year for the ETF.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF delivered the highest percentage returns in 2024, climbing $109.78 per share to close the year at $511.23 (+27.05%). Unlike the SPY, which struggled in Q4, the tech-heavy index regained momentum, adding an impressive +4.80% for the quarter. December, while relatively flat, managed to close in positive territory, securing an impressive nine months of gains for the year.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The IWM ETF delivered the most modest returns among the major indexes in 2024, rising just $21.41 per share to close the year at $220.95 (+10.73%). Q4 proved turbulent for small caps, marked by new all-time highs followed by an equally sharp sell-off, ultimately eking out a minimal +0.35% quarterly gain. December capped off the year as its worst month, erasing November’s gains with an -8.81% decline.

Earnings

Notable Results

EMKR (Emcore Corp)

EPS: $(0.22) vs $(0.22) est
REV: $21.70M vs $21.00M est

RGP (Resources Connection)

EPS: $0.18 vs $0.00 est
REV: $145.62M vs $137.02M est

LFCR (Lifecore Biomedical)

EPS: $(0.25) vs $(0.31) est
REV: $32.56M vs $29.75M est

ENSV (Enservco Corporation)

EPS: $(0.05) vs — est
REV: $3.98M vs $5.40M est

DJCO (Daily Journal)

EPS: $19.41 vs — est
REV: $19.87M vs — est

DGLY (Digital Ally)

EPS: $(0.91) vs — est
REV: $4.05M vs — est

What’s Happening Now

NVDA (NVIDIA)

Following last week’s bull flag breakout, NVDA is set to enter a historically strong three-week stretch, including its best-performing week of the year, averaging a return of 7.37%. After lagging since the U.S. election, NVDA is staging a comeback, aiming to reclaim its title as the world’s most valuable company and challenge Apple in the race to a $4 trillion market cap.

This is an image of NVDA's weekly seasonality.

TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor)

TSM is a key supplier in NVIDIA’s chip production chain, manufacturing advanced AI GPUs like the A100 and H100 using TSM’s 4-nanometer technology. Over the past decade, January has historically been TSM’s best month, averaging a 6.67% return with an 80% win rate. If NVIDIA’s breakout continues, TSM could be next in line to rally.

This is an image of TSM monthly seasonality.

BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has started putting its massive $325 billion cash pile to work, recently adding to its stakes in Occidental Petroleum, Sirius XM, and VeriSign. SIRI, a leader in satellite radio, has struggled this past year, while VRSN, a dominant force in domain registrations, continues to deliver strong margins. These moves hint at renewed market optimism from the Oracle of Omaha.

This is a list of insider buys from Berkshire Hathaway this week.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!