Last week, we noted that the large-cap stocks remained constructive despite a week of losses, and this week bulls were able to find their footing. Following a tame December PPI and CPI print, we saw a significant move higher across the board. Notably, the Russell 2000 led the charge, raising an important question: Are traders positioning themselves for favorable conditions for small caps under Trump’s policies?
- Apple Sales Struggle
- Hindenburg Shuts Down
- Musk SEC Lawsuit
- Microsoft Unveils CoreAI
- Use AI To Code Your Ideas Into Custom Indicators
Next week brings a shortened trading schedule with Martin Luther King Day and the Presidential Inauguration on Monday. In addition, big tech earnings kick off as Netflix takes center stage. With large caps looking for their first higher high since early December, will the Trump inauguration ignite a rally, or will it be a sell-the-news event? Let’s dive into the charts:
Weekly Analysis
SPY (SPDR S&P 500)
The SPY ETF had a strong week fueled by CPI and PPI, and managed to close just shy of this month’s high at $597.58 (+2.93%) Our ‘RSI, MACD Confluence‘ custom indicator, which uses candle coloring to visualize RSI and MACD strength, shows momentum has swung back in the bulls favor for the first time since all-time highs. How do we know? Friday’s daily candle has turned green.
QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)
The QQQ ETF closed the week at $521.74 (+2.87%), showing slight lag in bullish momentum compared to its peers. Our ‘RSI, MACD Confluence‘ indicator printed a neutral (white) candle on Friday, signaling that momentum isn’t fully aligned yet. While RSI closed above 50, the MACD has yet to cross above its signal line.
IWM (iShares Russell 2000)
The IWM led the pack this week, closing strong at $225.46 (+3.95%). Price gapped above a key High Volume Node (HVN) and came within earshot of its monthly high. Our ‘RSI,MACD Confluence‘ indicator confirmed bullish momentum with a green candle, signaling alignment in both RSI and MACD.
Earnings
Notable Results
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)
- EPS: $2.24 vs $2.16 est
- REV: $26.88B vs $26.38B est
JPM (JP Morgan Chase)
- EPS: $4.81 vs $4.11 est
- REV: $43.74B vs $41.70B est
WFC (Wells Fargo)
- EPS: $1.43 vs $1.34 est
- REV: $20.38B vs $20.59B est
GS (Goldman Sachs)
- EPS: $11.95 vs $8.30 est
- REV: $13.87B vs $12.39B est
BLK (BlackRock)
- EPS: $11.93 vs $11.21 est
- REV: $5.68B vs $5.53B est
C (Citigroup)
- EPS: $1.34 vs $1.22 est
- REV: $19.58B vs $19.48B est
BK (The Bank of New York Mellon)
- EPS: $1.72 vs $1.56 est
- REV: $4.85B vs $4.65B est
UNH (UnitedHealth Group)
- EPS: $6.81 vs $6.72 est
- REV: $100.81B vs $101.76B est
BAC (Bank of America)
- EPS: $0.82 vs $0.77 est
- REV: $25.50B vs $25.13B est
MS (Morgan Stanley)
- EPS: $2.22 vs $1.70 est
- REV: $16.22B vs $15.03B est
What’s Happening Now
XLE (SPDR Energy Sector)
Energy stocks are surging, with XLE up 8% YTD—leading all sectors after a tough 2024. Seasonality trends suggest more strength ahead, with win rates and mean returns accelerating in the coming months before peaking in April. As Trump takes office Monday, his tariff threat against Canadian imports adds focus to U.S. reliance on Canadian energy. Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips making up nearly 50% of XLE, are key names to watch.
BLK (BlackRock)
BlackRock began 2025 on a high note, reporting record-breaking Q4 results with $11.6 trillion in AUM and a 23% increase in revenue. The strong performance has sparked bullish momentum, earning several buy ratings this year. Morgan Stanley set the high bar with a $1,275 price target—26% above Friday’s close. With $281 billion in quarterly inflows and a record $641 billion in 2024, BlackRock’s growth narrative continues to impress.
NFLX (Netflix)
Netflix heads into earnings week with a history of delivering strong average returns—over 7% over the past decade and over 10% since 2005. Expectations are high, with Q4 earnings projected at $4.20 per share (+69.2% YoY), $10.12B in revenue (+13.5% YoY), and a record 290.9M subscribers. Notably, Netflix will discontinue reporting quarterly subscriber numbers after this release, shifting focus to revenue and profit metrics.
Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!
Market Update Into September 7th: Inflation Data Incoming