Market Update into February 24th: Breakout Attempt Failed

Markets kicked off the week with strong bullish momentum as the SPY and QQQ ETFs surged to all-time highs. But the rally quickly unraveled as heightened volatility from February options expiration collided with weaker-than-expected UMich sentiment data, fueling a sharp reversal and shifting momentum to the downside. By the end of the week, the bearish pullback left traders wondering if this was another failed attempt to break out of the multi-month consolidation. In other news:

• Trump’s Tariff Strategy
• DeepSeek Funding Pivot
• Nikola Files Bankruptcy
• Palantir Insider Selling

This week, all eyes are on key economic data, led by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—PCE—along with the second revision of Q4 GDP. Depending on how these catalysts turn out, the market could be forced to finally pick a direction. Let’s dive into the charts to get a visual.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF hit all-time highs earlier in the week but then reversed, closing at $599.98 (-1.60%). What initially looked like a decisive move out of the range was all given back by the end of the week. The reversal came with a notable surge in volume, as shown in our RVOL color-coded volume indicator, signaling that selling pressure intensified as SPY gave back its breakout gains. Traders will be watching closely to see if this pullback finds support or if a deeper retracement is in play.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

While the QQQ ETF briefly notched a new all-time high this week, it ended up closing down at $526.08 (-2.24%). It has remained trapped in the same daily range since November, struggling to establish a clear trend. Friday’s sell-off came on elevated RVOL, highlighting increased participation in the move lower. With no clear breakout in either direction, traders will be watching to see if QQQ finally picks a path—or if the chop continues.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Since December, the IWM ETF has been stuck in a range and trailing behind its peers, closing at $217.80 (-3.61%). Unlike SPY and QQQ, which briefly hit new highs before reversing, IWM struggled to gain any real momentum. Its early February breakout attempt failed almost immediately, showing a lack of momentum. With the highest daily volume bar since December, selling pressure is accelerating, pushing small caps toward their year-to-date lows.

Earnings

Notable Results

WMT (Walmart)

• EPS: $0.66  vs  $0.64 est
• REV: $180.60B  vs  $180.01B est

BABA (Alibaba Group)

• EPS: $2.93  vs  $2.66 est
• REV: $38.38B  vs  $38.19B est

BKNG (Booking Holdings)

• EPS: $41.55  vs  $35.89 est
• REV: $5.47B  vs  $5.18B est

ANET (Arista Networks)

• EPS: $0.65  vs  $0.57 est
• REV: $1.93B  vs  $1.90B est

XYZ (Block)

• EPS: $0.71  vs  $0.87 est
• REV: $6.03B  vs  $6.29B est

ETSY (Etsy)

• EPS: $1.03  vs  $0.94 est
• REV: $852.20M  vs  $862.82M est

RIVN (Rivian Automotive)

• EPS: $(0.46)  vs  $(0.65) est
• REV: $1.73B  vs  $1.40B est

CVNA (Carvana)

• EPS: $0.56  vs  $0.21 est
• REV: $3.55B  vs  $3.31B est

CPRT (Copart)

• EPS: $0.40  vs  $0.37 est
• REV: $1.16B  vs  $1.13B est

MELI (MercadoLibre)

• EPS: $12.61  vs  $7.89 est
• REV: $6.06B  vs  $5.88B est

What’s Happening Now

KO (Coca-Cola)
Coca-Cola delivered a standout Q4, crushing expectations and rewarding investors with a dividend boost—fueling a rally of over +12% month-to-date. History suggests the momentum is far from over. March and April have been the stock’s strongest months over the past two decades, boasting the highest win rates and averaging gains of +1.69% and +1.85%, respectively. Will history repeat?

DKNG (DraftKings)
DraftKings is catching Wall Street’s attention, with recent analyst upgrades setting price targets as high as $65—implying a 42% upside from its close on Friday. The bullish sentiment comes after record-breaking Super Bowl engagement, where DKNG set a new daily sportsbook handle record of $436 million. With the continued expansion of legalized sports betting across the U.S., DraftKings could benefit from a growing customer base on top of these analyst upgrades.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!