Market Update Into February 23rd: Nvidia Earnings Incoming

3 mins read

The major indexes remained rangebound last week, as traders digested numerous developments, including renewed tariff headlines, lower-than-expected GDP, and hotter inflation data. Notably, all three catalysts hit on Friday, ultimately sending the equity markets higher. Metals also ripped with Silver closing the week up ~10%. Meanwhile, consumer staples and crypto ended the week in the red, leaving investors unsure whether we are in a risk-on or risk-off environment. In other news:

Looking ahead, traders will finally get clarity with the release of $NVDA earnings. With the major indexes still coiled, the semiconductor ETF up more than 3% last week, metals surging, and few alternative catalysts on deck, conditions appear ripe for a decisive move. The question now is which direction the indexes break out to. With that said, let’s see how the charts are looking.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY ended the week higher at 689.43 (+1.13%), finishing right where it opened the prior week. Despite the choppy price action, there was still opportunity for intraday traders using the new ORB tools. With tariff headlines hitting on Friday, 5-minute ORB traders were able to capture a 3R move as SPY rallied 5 points following the opening range breakout.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The Nasdaq tracked closely with the S&P 500 last week, as QQQ closed at $608.81 (+1.15%) despite the heavy news flow. However, the 5-minute opening range breakout produced only a 2R move based on a stop beneath the opening range low. With $NVDA earnings on deck, its reaction could drive QQQ decisively in either direction.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small caps lagged last week, with IWM closing at $264.61 (+0.63%). While the ETF has steadily outperformed large caps in 2026, momentum paused over the past week. Despite that consolidation, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy delivered, allowing traders to capture a 3R move in less than 10 minutes.

Earnings

Notable Results

FIG (Figma)

EPS: $0.08 vs $(0.04) est
REV: $303.78M vs $293.12M est

CVNA (Carvana)

EPS: $4.22 vs $1.13 est
REV: $5.60B vs $5.23B est

W (Wayfair)

EPS: $0.85 vs $0.40 est
REV: $3.34B vs $3.30B est

OXY (Occidental Petroleum)

EPS: $0.31 vs $0.19 est
REV: $5.42B vs $5.71B est

PANW (Palo Alto Networks)

EPS: $1.03 vs $0.76 est
REV: $2.59B vs $2.58B est

OPEN (Opendoor Technologies)

EPS: $(0.07) vs $(0.10) est
REV: $736.00M vs $594.97M est

NEM (Newmont)

EPS: $2.52 vs $1.94 est
REV: $6.82B vs $6.06B est

DBX (Dropbox)

EPS: $0.68 vs $0.57 est
REV: $636.20M vs $627.74M est

DE (Deere & Company)

EPS: $2.42 vs $2.03 est
REV: $9.61B vs $7.54B est

EBAY (eBay)

EPS: $1.41 vs $1.24 est
REV: $2.97B vs $2.88B est

LYV (Live Nation)

EPS: $(0.96) vs $(1.04) est
REV: $6.31B vs $6.10B est

OBDC (Blue Owl Capital)

EPS: $0.36 vs $0.35 est
REV: $447.75M vs $449.02M est

WMT (Walmart)

EPS: $0.74 vs $0.73 est
REV: $190.70B vs $189.18B est

BKNG (Booking Holdings)

EPS: $48.80 vs $48.49 est
REV: $6.35B vs $6.12B est

RIO (Rio Tinto)

EPS: $6.69 vs $6.65 est
REV: $57.64B vs $57.40B est

AU (AngloGold Ashanti)

EPS: $1.90 vs $1.94 est
REV: $3.02B vs $3.01B est

NTR (Nutrien)

EPS: $0.83 vs $0.88 est
REV: $5.34B vs $5.27B est

DASH (DoorDash)

EPS: $0.48 vs $0.58 est
REV: $3.96B vs $3.98B est

ET (Energy Transfer)

EPS: $0.25 vs $0.35 est
REV: $25.32B vs $24.83B est

CZR (Caesars Entertainment)

EPS: $(0.33) vs $(0.21) est
REV: $2.92B vs $2.88B est

What’s Happening Now

XAR S&P Aerospace & Defense
Geopolitical tensions have ignited a broad rally across Aerospace and Defense. While large cap LMT has broken out to record highs, mid-cap airplane suppliers lead YTD, with Astronics (ATRO) and AAR Corp (AIR) surging over 40% on recent beat-and-raise earnings. This week, Axios reported Congress is on track to give Trump a “green light ahead of a potential major war in the Middle East.” If cooler heads don’t prevail, then defense should continue to outperform.

AMZN Amazon
Amazon has officially overtaken Walmart as the world’s largest company by annual revenue, yet their valuations have inverted. Investors are now pricing the “tech” giant at a grounded 29x earnings while bidding up the “staple” to a 46x P/E ratio typically associated with high growth names. AMZN’s extraordinary $200 billion CapEx projection is likely tipping the scales, whereas WMT is capturing AI efficiency gains without outsized spending.

FIG Figma
It’s been an extremely volatile year for 2025’s biggest IPOs. Slowing U.S. consumer spend has weighed down retail-focused fintechs Chime (CHYM) and Klarna (KLAR), while a broad crypto downtrend has routed stablecoin firm Circle (CRCL) and the Bullish (BLSH) exchange. Figma shows the deepest decline near a -80% drawdown from all-time highs. However, FIG’s double beat this week could signal a turnaround and evolution from a niche design tool to an operationally mature, turnkey AI platform.

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