Market Update Into February 19th: Bearish MACD Curls

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Market Update

Small caps showed relative strength as Bitcoin rallied above 50k for the first time in over two years. Meanwhile, January CPI data came in hotter than expected, and SPY & QQQ charts are starting to show cracks forming in the foundation.

AAPL loses the 200D SMA
SMCI takes the elevator down
Bezos Sells another $4 Billion
NVDA gets a street high $1,200 PT
US January CPI comes in hot at 3.1%

Let’s dig into the individual names and see how the charts are looking.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF closed the week down marginally at $499.51 (-0.37%) breaking a 5-week green streak. Bearish RSI divergence and a bearish MACD cross threaten the index’s momentum as price trades into the apex of the rising wedge.

S&P 500 SPY Daily chart showing a bearish MACD curl and tight price action near apex of a rising wedge.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Tech-heavy QQQ ETF closed the week at $430.57 (-1.48%) falling the most among its index peers. Friday’s market sell-off pushed the price within striking distance of testing lower wedge support as MACD curls over.

Nasdaq 100 QQQ Daily chart showing a bearish MACD curl and tight price action near apex of a rising wedge.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Unlike the S&P and Nasdaq, the IWM chart shows an ascending triangle pattern and a bullish MACD cross. Closing the week at $201.66 (+1.49%) small caps display some mighty relative strength holding above the October low POC.

IWM Russell 2000 Chart showing price near apex of ascending triangle, with MACD curling up and the POC just below the most recent candle.

Earnings

Notable Results

KO Coca-Cola

EPS: $0.49 vs $0.49 est
SALES: $10.80B vs $10.67B est

DDOG Datadog

EPS: $0.44 vs $0.44 est
SALES: $589.65M vs $568.695M est

HOOD Robinhood

EPS: $0.03 vs $(0.01) est
SALES: $471.00M vs $456.81M est

SHOP Shopify

EPS: $0.34 vs $0.31 est
SALES: $2.14B vs $2.08B est

AMAT Applied Materials

EPS: $2.13 vs $1.91 est
SALES: $6.71B vs $6.48B est

UPST Upstart

EPS: $(0.11) vs $(0.14) est
SALES: $140.91M vs $134.89M est

CROX Crocs

EPS: $2.58 vs $2.37 est
SALES: $960.00M vs $958.22M est

OXY Occidental

EPS: $0.74 vs $0.71 est
SALES: $7.17B vs $6.84B est

DKNG DraftKings

EPS: $0.29 vs $0.08 est
SALES: $1.23B vs $1.24B est

COIN Coinbase

EPS: $0.51 vs $(0.01) est
SALES: $953.79M vs $822.36M est

What’s Happening Now

ABBV AbbVie

AbbVie made its first ATH in nearly two years, trading up to $178.92 on Friday and looking to keep the momentum going next week as seasonality shows ABBV entering its best-performing week of the year.

This is a weekly seasonality chart of AbbVie, which shows next week (The week of February 19th) as the strongest performing week of the year over the past 11 years!

ARM ARM Holdings

Analysts continue to pile on bullish stock ratings for ARM following stronger-than-expected top and bottom-line forward guidance. AMD, NVDA, and SCMI also caught buy ratings this week, with NVDA catching a street-high $1,200 PT from Loop Capital.

A list of assorted analysts upgrading NVDA, ARM, SMCI and AMD to buy, with one HOLD rating on ARM from Susquehanna.

SPY S&P 500

Can the market keep going up from here? Since the late 90s, seasonality shows that during election years, the S&P 500 tends to rally right until October, when uncertainty around election results brings added risk.

S&P 500 28 year seasonality chart showing increasing strength heading into summer months. Low performance in October.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter!