Market Update Into December 8th: Rally Into FOMC

Markets pushed higher last week as rate-cut expectations climbed above 90 percent, fueling a broad risk-on move that lifted semiconductors and small caps while defensive areas like healthcare and treasuries slipped. The rally did not extend to every corner of the market, with crypto finishing the week flat and signaling a growing divergence in risk appetite across asset classes. Earnings added another source of volatility, with major cybersecurity and semiconductor names dominating trader attention last week:

• Zuck Slashes Metaverse
• Snowflake Rally Reversed
• Marvell Acquisition Shock
• Crowdstrike Earnings Shock

Looking ahead, all eyes turn to Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Powell’s press conference. With markets rallying into what traders view as a highly probable rate cut, the question now is whether the move has already been priced in or if fresh policy guidance will be enough to push the major indexes to new all-time highs. Let’s see what the charts are telling us.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

SPY was the weakest of the major indexes last week, finishing nearly unchanged at $685.69 (+0.33%). However, the Chande Absolute Trend Strength (CHATS) Indicator turned candles green for the first time in weeks, reflecting a shift toward strengthening momentum and renewed trend persistence. With SPY pressing toward all-time highs, a fresh CHATS flip often signals the early stages of a re-acceleration phase rather than exhaustion.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

QQQ led the major indexes last week, closing at $625.48 (+1.00%) and finishing Friday with a green CHATS candle. The Polymarket rate-cut odds have surged since late November and recently crossed above the odds of no cut. This shift in expectations helped reinforce the bullish reversal, supporting continued risk-on positioning in growth and tech ahead of the upcoming FOMC decision.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small caps continued to show strength last week, with IWM closing at $250.77 (+0.84%) and pressing just below all-time highs. As one of the most rate-sensitive equity groups, IWM has been quick to respond to the sharp rise in Polymarket rate-cut odds over the past several weeks. With the FOMC decision just days away, the question now is whether a highly anticipated cut becomes a sell-the-news event or if improving rate expectations fuel a breakout to new highs.

Earnings

Notable Results

SNOW (Snowflake)

• EPS: $0.35 vs $(0.05) est
• REV: $1.213B vs $1.182B est

MDB (MongoDB)

• EPS: $1.32 vs $0.26 est
• REV: $628.31M vs $592.55M est

M (Macy’s)

• EPS: $0.09 vs $(0.14) est
• REV: $4.713B vs $4.575B est

GTLB (GitLab)

• EPS: $0.25 vs $0.10 est
• REV: $244.35M vs $239.03M est

CRWD (CrowdStrike)

• EPS: $0.96 vs $0.59 est
• REV: $1.234B vs $1.213B est

CRDO (Credo Technology)

• EPS: $0.67 vs $0.42 est
• REV: $268.03M vs $235.09M est

OKTA (Okta)

• EPS: $0.82 vs $0.53 est
• REV: $742.00M vs $730.27M est

DOCU (DocuSign)

• EPS: $1.01 vs $0.68 est
• REV: $813.35M vs $806.90M est

DG (Dollar General)

• EPS: $1.28 vs $0.93 est
• REV: $10.65B vs $10.61B est

CRM (Salesforce)

• EPS: $3.25 vs $2.58 est
• REV: $10.26B vs $10.27B est

HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise)

• EPS: $0.62 vs $0.55 est
• REV: $9.68B vs $9.93B est

ULTA (Ulta Beauty)

• EPS: $5.14 vs $4.58 est
• REV: $2.86B vs $2.71B est

DLTR (Dollar Tree)

• EPS: $1.21 vs $1.09 est
• REV: $4.75B vs $4.71B est

BMO (Bank of Montreal)

• EPS: $2.38 vs $2.15 est
• REV: $6.79B vs $6.40B est

RY (Royal Bank of Canada)

• EPS: $2.78 vs $2.52 est
• REV: $12.41B vs $12.01B est

TD (Toronto Dominion Bank)

• EPS: $1.57 vs $1.46 est
• REV: $11.17B vs $11.05B est

CM (CIBC)

• EPS: $1.59 vs $1.48 est
• REV: $5.46B vs $5.19B est

BNS (Scotiabank)

• EPS: $1.39 vs $1.33 est
• REV: $7.07B vs $6.74B est

KR (Kroger)

• EPS: $1.05 vs $1.04 est
• REV: $33.86B vs $34.22B est

What’s Happening Now

TSLA Tesla
Next week is TSLA’s most reliable bullish window. It has closed green in 9 of the last 10 years with an average gain of 3.7%. However, that strength fades fast. The following week historically flips into negative territory, so if next Tesla delivers its usual strength, the seasonal script points to taking profits rather than adding risk.

AVGO Broadcom
Next week is an anomaly on AVGO’s seasonal calendar. It has delivered an average gain of 8.9% over the last decade, easily the strongest week of the year, and more than double the next best period. No other weekly stretch even comes close. That momentum burst fades quickly, but the historical pattern heading into next week is hard to ignore.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!