Market Update Into August 5th: Jerome, Jobs, and Mag 7 Earnings

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All eyes were on three key events this week; Jerome Powell and the FOMC decision on interest rates, the jobs report, and earnings results from key players like AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and META. While many traders were hoping for a surprise cut from Powell & Co., any potential changes were deferred to the September meeting. On the earnings front, though AMZN was the only company of the group that failed to meet expectations, the good results from its peers were not enough to turn the market around. In other news,

Delta is seeking compensation from CRWD
Fed tees up September rate cut
Unemployment is on the rise
Congress Trading Data exposes the Elites

We are now in the dog days of summer, and while volatility has been heating up, many are hoping that election-year seasonality will offer some relief in the coming weeks. Let’s dig into the charts and see how things are shaping up.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF got hit hard again this week, closing at $532.90 (-2.12%) after being rejected last month at the Golden Fibonacci extension from the 2021 high. Now, the price is breaking below the long-term ascending channel in tandem with the first above-average volume reading we’ve seen since mid-April.

This is a weekly chart of the SPY index.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Much like the SPY, the QQQ ETF broke down below the bottom of the long-term ascending channel and closed at $448.81 (-3.05%). However, with six of the Mag7 earnings behind and three weeks of steadily increasing above-average volume, are we seeing a fever pitch in participants leaving this index and could there be some relief on the way?

This is a weekly chart of the QQQ index.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

It was high time for the IWM ETF to give back some of its gains, and this week it did just that, closing at $208.92 (-6.82%). The price found resistance just below the 2021 high and has now fallen back to retest the top of the weekly ascending triangle that it broke out from several weeks ago.

This is a weekly chart of the IWM index.

Earnings

Notable Results

CVX (Chevron)

EPS: $2.55 vs $2.93 est
SALES: $51.18B vs $50.80B est

XOM (Exxon Mobil)

EPS: $2.14 vs $2.00 est
SALES: $93.06B vs $90.90B est

AAPL (Apple)

EPS: $1.40 vs $1.35 est
SALES: $85.80B vs $84.53B est

COIN (Coinbase)

EPS: $0.14 vs $0.14 est
SALES: $1.45B vs $1.40B est

TEAM (Atlassian)

EPS: $0.66 vs $0.60 est
SALES: $1.13B vs $1.13B est

INTC (Intel)

EPS: $0.02 vs $0.10 est
SALES: $12.83B vs $12.94B est

AMZN (Amazon)

EPS: $1.26 vs $1.02 est
SALES: $147.97B vs $148.58B

MRNA (Moderna)

EPS: $(3.33) vs $(3.36) est
SALES: $241.00M vs $132.18M est

BUD (Anheuser-Busch)

EPS: $0.90 vs $0.87 est
SALES: $15.33B vs $13.56 est

COP (ConocoPhillips)

EPS: $1.98 vs $1.96 est
SALES: $14.14B vs $14.92B est

CVNA (Carvana)

EPS: $0.14 vs $(0.12) est
SALES: $3.41B vs $3.24B est

LRCX (Lam Research)

EPS: $7.78 vs $7.58 est
SALES: $3.87B vs $4.82B est

META (Meta Platforms)

EPS: $5.16 vs $4.73 est
SALES: $39.07B vs $38.31B est

ARM (ARM Holdings)

EPS: $0.40 vs $0.34 est
SALES: $939.00M vs $902.69M est

QCOM (Qualcomm)

EPS: $2.33 vs $2.25 est
SALES: $9.39B vs $9.22B est

MO (Altria)

EPS: $1.31 vs $1.34 est
SALES: $5.28B vs $5.39B est

TMUS (T-Mobile)

EPS: $2.49 vs $2.28 est
SALES: $19.77B vs $19.55B est

BA (Boeing)

EPS: $(2.90) vs $(1.91) est
SALES: $16.90B vs $17.23B est

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

EPS: $0.69 vs $0.68 est
SALES: $5.84B vs $5.72B est

SBUX (Starbucks)

EPS: $0.93 vs $0.93 est
SALES: $9.11B vs $9.24B est

MSFT (Microsoft)

EPS $2.95 vs $2.92 est
SALES: $64.70B vs $64.36B est

PYPL (PayPal)

EPS: $1.19 vs $0.98 est
SALES: $7.90B vs $7.81B est

SPGI (S&P Global)

EPS: $4.04 vs $3.65 est
SALES: $3.55B vs $3.42B est

MRK (Merck)

EPS: $2.28 vs $2.15 est
SALES: $16.11B vs $15.84B est

PFE (Pfizer)

EPS: $0.60 vs $0.46 est
SALES: $13.28B vs $13.02B est

PG (Proctor & Gamble)

EPS: $1.40 vs $1.37 est
SALES: $20.53B vs $20.74B est

TLRY (Tilray)

EPS: $0.04 vs $(0.02) est
SALES: $229.88M vs $227.07M est

ON (ON Semiconductor)

EPS: $0.96 vs $0.92 est
SALES: $1.74B vs $1.73B est

MCD (McDonald’s)

EPS: $2.97 vs $3.07 est
SALES: $6.49B vs $6.61B est

What’s Happening Now

QQQ (Nasdaq 100)

Election year seasonality suggests the QQQ ETF may see one last hoorah in August, with an average gain of 3.81% over the past 25 years. However, this is typically followed by steep declines in September, October, and November, with average returns of -4.75%, -4.69%, and -2.56%, respectively, before normalizing in December. Currently, the Nasdaq 100 has closed red for the fourth week in a row, the first time since December 2022.

This is a monthly seasonality chart of the QQQ index.

GOOG (Google)

Since peaking in mid-July, Google has officially entered a correction, dropping -12.9% over the past 16 trading days despite beating Q2 earnings and surpassing $10B in cloud revenue for the first time. However, seasonal trends suggest bulls may find relief next week, as Google has historically outperformed during this period, falling only twice since 2014.

This is a weekly seasonality chart of GOOG.

META (Meta Platforms)

Meta reported Q2 EPS of $5.16, beating estimates by $0.40, and revenue of $39.07B, up 22.1% YoY, while June saw 3.27 billion daily active people (DAP), representing 40.2% of the global population. Analysts are bullish, with META receiving 20 buy ratings and several price target hikes. Wells Fargo set the highest target at $647, indicating a 32.5% upside from Friday’s close.

This is an image of all recent analyst estimates on META.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!