Market Update Into August 4th: Sentiment Turns Sour

It was a volatile week for the markets as the Fed held rates steady, core PCE ran hotter than expected, Trump rolled out sweeping universal tariffs, and July’s payrolls print came in well below forecasts. The combination of tariff headlines and weak jobs data triggered a sharp gap down in the major indexes on Friday, souring sentiment into the weekend. Earnings season remained in full swing, with $MSFT and $META flashing on the power gap scanner after crushing estimates, but they ultimately gave back gains as Friday’s market selloff dragged them lower.

• Trump’s New Tariffs
• Figma Goes IPO
• Jobs Growth Stalls
• SoFi Beats Earnings

With a major batch of earnings, the FOMC, and critical economic data now in the rearview, traders may find a momentary pause in catalysts. However, the new tariffs have dramatically shifted sentiment, and with bullish momentum already under pressure, the path forward could prove challenging for the bulls. Let’s see how the charts are setting up:

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF snapped its five-week winning streak, closing at $621.72 (-2.40%) and printing a weekly bearish engulfing candle, which TrendSpider automatically detected. Following the FOMC rate decision, the Polymarket Indicator showed declining odds of a rate cut, adding pressure to the tape. With a lighter catalyst calendar ahead, the YTD volume point of control now stands out as the next potential support level if bearish momentum persists.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ closed at $553.88 (-2.21%) after a heavy week of tech earnings. Even as major holdings like $MSFT and $META posted strong power earnings gaps, macro pressures and fading rate cut odds weighed heavily on the ETF. After a five-week rally, the shift in sentiment may be opening the door for bears to take control and target the YTD volume point of control support below.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

Small caps took the hardest hit last week, with the IWM ETF closing at $214.92 (-4.22%). It’s no surprise that diminishing rate cut odds are hitting small-cap companies hardest, especially as the ETF decisively rejected the YTD volume point of control. Now sitting between two high-volume nodes, with the larger one overhead, bears appear to have the near-term leverage.

Earnings

Notable Results

AAPL (Apple)

• EPS: $1.57 vs $1.42 est
• REV: $94.00B vs $89.04B est

MSFT (Microsoft)

• EPS: $3.65 vs $3.37 est
• REV: $76.44B vs $73.80B est

META (Meta Platforms)

• EPS: $7.14 vs $5.79 est
• REV: $47.52B vs $44.58B est

AMZN (Amazon)

• EPS: $1.68 vs $1.30 est
• REV: $167.70B vs $161.87B est

HOOD (Robinhood)

• EPS: $0.42 vs $0.29 est
• REV: $989.00M vs $898.95M est

COIN (Coinbase)

• EPS: $0.12 vs $1.35 est
• REV: $1.50B vs $1.69B est

UNH (UnitedHealth)

• EPS: $4.08 vs $4.95 est
• REV: $111.62B vs $111.69B est

V (Visa)

• EPS: $2.98 vs $2.83 est
• REV: $10.17B vs $9.82B est

PG (Procter & Gamble)

• EPS: $1.48 vs $1.42 est
• REV: $20.89B vs $20.77B est

BA (Boeing)

• EPS: $(1.24) vs $(0.94) est
• REV: $22.75B vs $20.20B est

SPOT (Spotify)

• EPS: $(0.49) vs $2.11 est
• REV: $4.94B vs $4.29B est

SOFI (SoFi Technologies)

• EPS: $0.08 vs $0.06 est
• REV: $858.23M vs $801.49M est

SBUX (Starbucks)

• EPS: $0.50 vs $0.65 est
• REV: $9.46B vs $9.29B est

MO (Altria Group)

• EPS: $1.44 vs $0.39 est
• REV: $6.10B vs $5.21B est

What’s Happening Now

NFLX Netflix
Netflix seasonality flips bullish just as broader markets enter storm season. While September tends to weigh on tech and indexes, NFLX has historically outperformed in the fall, showing strength in August, September, and October. With earnings strong, margins rising, and ad revenue set to double, Netflix could be seen as a rare haven if tariff tensions escalate with seasonality supporting the setup.

VIX CBOE Volatility Index
No matter what sparks it, something tends to break in late summer. The VIX’s largest average spike is in August, front-running seasonal weakness, and remains elevated into October. Whether it’s earnings, geopolitics, or a policy shift, history says volatility is on deck. If you haven’t checked your exposure yet, now’s a good time.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!