Market Update Into August 3rd: Markets Pick Winners

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Markets stayed volatile this week, with the Fed and earnings fighting for the headline. The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on Wednesday, but the 9-3 vote saw three dissents in favor of a hike, and Chair Warsh declined to call it a pause, saying inflation remains elevated. Markets are now pricing roughly 80% odds of a September hike, with the 10-year finishing the week higher and mortgage rates at a one-year high. Oil stayed just as volatile, with Hormuz de-escalation talks pulling crude sharply lower early week before Iran’s strikes on US forces in Jordan sent Brent back up mid-week. Net for the week, the major indexes held up:

Earnings did the real damage and the real rewarding. $MSFT and $AMZN both delivered big beats, with Amazon’s AWS growth driving a strong Friday move. $AAPL beat on both lines but still shed a significant chunk of market value on soft guidance and supply-chain commentary. $META missed on EPS despite topping revenue estimates and sold off on the week. $HOOD beat estimates by a wide margin on both lines and still fell, a reminder that beating the number doesn’t guarantee the stock follows. In other news:

Looking ahead, markets face a packed week. Names such as $PLTR, $SNDK, $AMD, $CIFR, $APP and $DUOL all report earnings, among many others. With rotation happening out of chip and memory stocks and into lagging sectors such as software, let’s see how the broader market is looking on the charts.

SPY S&P 500
SPY closed the week higher at $746.82 (+0.25%), printing a hammer candle above the 9/21 EMA cloud. The fast stochastic has pulled back to the same zone it hit during spring lows, despite price holding key levels. The trendline overhead remains the level to watch for a breakout.

QQQ Nasdaq-100
The Q’s closed lower at $687.92 (-0.55%), slipping below the 9EMA but managing to stay inside the close after an end of week push. Similar to $SPY, the fast stochastic has slipped to March 2026 levels while price has yet to break key moving averages. However, the Qs are trending down steeply and have recorded 3 red weeks in a row.

IWM Russell-2000
IWM performed the worst out of the three, closing lower at $291.24 (-0.93%) for its 5th consecutive red week. Despite the losing streak, price is still holding the 9/21 EMA cloud. Small caps remain highly sensitive to borrowing costs, and the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady kept pressure on the group.

Notable Results

Notable Results

AMZN (Amazon.com)

EPS: $5.75 vs $1.82 est
REV: $200.606B vs $196.022B est

CVX (Chevron Corporation)

EPS: $6.06 vs $5.27 est
REV: $70.055B vs $62.365B est

STX (Seagate Technology Holdings plc)

EPS: $5.71 vs $5.04 est
REV: $3.629B vs $3.484B est

MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)

EPS: $4.74 vs $4.23 est
REV: $90.007B vs $87.612B est

MA (Mastercard Incorporated)

EPS: $5.04 vs $4.76 est
REV: $9.277B vs $9.066B est

KO (The Coca-Cola Company)

EPS: $0.97 vs $0.93 est
REV: $13.400B vs $13.151B est

ABBV (AbbVie Inc)

EPS: $3.65 vs $3.77 est
REV: $16.990B vs $16.760B est

XOM (Exxon Mobil Corporation)

EPS: $3.52 vs $3.76 est
REV: $116.017B vs $100.997B est

META (Meta Platforms, Inc)

EPS: $6.18 vs $7.18 est
REV: $60.801B vs $60.220B est

What’s Happening Now

MSFT Microsoft
Microsoft’s market cap rose by $450 billion on Thursday, marking the largest one-day valuation gain in history, after crushing earnings estimates with $90B total revenue. Microsoft Cloud revenue has nearly doubled since 2024, hitting $59.3B in Q4’26, demonstrating ROI for massive CapEx spend (which it recently reported as unchanged) and the broader AI hyperscaler trade.

AMZN Amazon
Amazon crushed earnings this week, led by its AWS segment accelerating to more than $42B in Q2 2026. As AMZN dominates the Magnificent Seven via $220B in CapEx guidance for this year, management is capitalizing on unprecedented AI demand. Although Amazon remains the cloud infra king, Microsoft is closing in on its key competitor with Azure boasting a 43% quarterly growth rate versus ~36% for AWS.

NVDA NVIDIA
After reclaiming its title as the world’s most valuable company from AAPL this week, Nvidia is entering its strongest seasonal window in August. With an 80% win-rate and a nearly +7.5% average gain over the past 20Y, recent MSFT and AMZN cloud expansions show powerful tailwinds and continued demand for largely Nvidia-powered AI infrastructure.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!