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Market Update Into August 31st: Warsh Tanks Markets

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Markets had a strong week as $NVDA reported incredible earnings and software names like $OKTA and $CRM gapped up alongside it. The mood flipped Friday when new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turned hawkish, flagging inflation and rate hike concerns that sent nearly everything lower. Rate hike expectations jumped from 58% to 68% during his speech, dragging down equities and metals while oil and energy held up best. In other news:

Looking ahead, Q2 2026 earnings season will mostly wrap up, with some big names including $DELL, $AVGO, $PANW, and $SNOW all set to report. There will also be several Fed speakers and key employment data coming out at the end of the week. With markets digesting higher rate hike odds, let’s see how the charts are setting up into this week.

Weekly Analysis

$SPY ended the week slightly up at $769.35 (+0.47%), continuing to hold above its recent swing low anchored VWAP. Weekly Trend Strength Candles remain green and the RSI MTF Stack is flashing green on both weekly and daily timeframes, showing long-term momentum is still bullish. With rate hike fears hitting tech and small-caps hardest, $SPY ended up leading the main indexes last week.

spy chart

$QQQ closed relatively flat at $716.43 (+0.42%), just managing to hold above its most recent swing low aVWAP. Momentum remains weaker than the broader market, as tech took the brunt of Friday’s sell-off. With the last wave of big tech and semi earnings still on deck this week, will $QQQ hold above support?

qqq chart

$IWM was the only index to fall last week, closing below its recent swing low aVWAP at $295.75 (-1.43%) as the Jackson Hole speech rattled rate-sensitive small-caps Friday. The RSI MTF Stack continues to cool on the daily and 1-hour timeframes, showing bullish momentum fading on shorter timeframes. However, weekly momentum remains strong as the ETF closed with a green Trend Strength Candle.

iwm chart

Notable Results

Earnings 08.28

Notable Results

CRM (Salesforce)

  • EPS: $5.90 vs $3.09 est
  • REV: $11.345B vs $11.317B est

P (PagerDuty)

  • EPS: $0.70 vs $0.50 est
  • REV: $1.186B vs $1.100B est

DLTR (Dollar Tree)

  • EPS: $1.39 vs $1.03 est
  • REV: $4.887B vs $4.843B est

CRWD (CrowdStrike)

  • EPS: $0.31 vs $0.24 est
  • REV: $1.471B vs $1.439B est

INTU (Intuit)

  • EPS: $4.03 vs $3.29 est
  • REV: $4.354B vs $4.269B est

OKTA (Okta)

  • EPS: $1.05 vs $0.86 est
  • REV: $805.000M vs $792.849M est

WDAY (Workday)

  • EPS: $2.75 vs $2.34 est
  • REV: $2.649B vs $2.634B est

SNPS (Synopsys)

  • EPS: $3.91 vs $3.47 est
  • REV: $2.477B vs $2.439B est

ZM (Zoom Video Communications)

  • EPS: $1.55 vs $1.38 est
  • REV: $1.277B vs $1.269B est

DG (Dollar General)

  • EPS: $2.23 vs $1.99 est
  • REV: $11.290B vs $11.178B est

VEEV (Veeva Systems)

  • EPS: $2.35 vs $2.10 est
  • REV: $927.963M vs $905.024M est

ADSK (Autodesk)

  • EPS: $3.30 vs $2.97 est
  • REV: $2.046B vs $2.012B est

HEI (Heico)

  • EPS: $1.67 vs $1.51 est
  • REV: $1.413B vs $1.348B est

A (Agilent Technologies)

  • EPS: $1.62 vs $1.48 est
  • REV: $1.878B vs $1.841B est

MRVL (Marvell Technology)

  • EPS: $0.94 vs $0.87 est
  • REV: $2.739B vs $2.709B est

NVDA (NVIDIA)

  • EPS: $2.22 vs $2.09 est
  • REV: $96.221B vs $92.111B est

WSM (Williams-Sonoma)

  • EPS: $2.10 vs $2.03 est
  • REV: $1.960B vs $1.916B est

What’s Happening Now

NVDA Nvidia
NVDA continued its relentless hypergrowth fueled by Data Center Revenue, leading top-line to a record $96.2B up 106% YoY while EPS reached $2.22 (+120% YoY). Despite a recent analyst warning from JPMorgan on the broad AI sector, Nvidia’s fundamentals run counter to Dot Com bubble comparisons. For context, 1999’s most valuable company Cisco peaked at nearly 200x trailing P/E whereas Nvidia seems relatively cheap at ~32x today.

Nvidia data center revenue

CRM Salesforce
Salesforce’s earnings were a masterclass in margin expansion. While top-line revenue was steady at around 11-13% YoY growth, bottom-line profitability has surged. EPS skyrocketed 102% YoY to $5.90, extending a three-quarter streak of large beats. Agentforce AI segment growth plus CEO Benioff’s roadshow alongside Anthropic’s Amodei this week helped undermine the previously-dominating SaaSpocalypse narrative.

CRM Net Income

INTC Intel
September is historically rough for the broad market, and particularly NFLX and CRM, with each averaging nearly 3% losses from 2010 until now. However, CRM’s blowout earnings and new Anthropic partnership could defy the trend. Legacy tech names INTC and ORCL conversely shine in September with both now supported by massive AI infra backlogs, AWS partnerships, and potential U.S. chip tariffs meant to support domestic compute leaders. At the same time, however, domestic chip producer AMD is nearing a seasonal rough patch.

INTC Seasonality

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets last week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!

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