Market Update into April 7th: Market Gets Liberated

3 mins read

The market started last week with what looked like a potential double bottom formation, but this was quickly shot down thanks to yet another tariff shock. On Wednesday at market close, Trump’s “Liberation Day” took a toll on the market when he announced a wave of tariffs, causing the markets to gap down hard. Friday brought key unemployment data and remarks from Fed Chair Powell, but neither was enough to stop the sell-off, as the Nasdaq-100 officially entered bear market territory and wiped away a whole year of gains. In other news:

Looking ahead, traders will be searching for clarity on whether the recent sell-off was justified or if a relief rally is in the cards. March CPI and PPI data, along with the release of the FOMC minutes, will play a key role in shaping sentiment this week. With the VIX hovering near the 45 handle, these events have the potential to shake markets in a big way. The only question is which way they are going to go, so let’s dive into the charts and find out.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

The SPY ETF closed the week at $505.28 (-9.08%) after seeing its first monthly bearish MACD cross since 2022. While the bears are celebrating, seasoned traders know that some of the strongest green days occur during the depths of downtrends. After a brutal week, the focus now turns to whether SPY can stage a mean reversion or if it continues its downward slide into bear market territory.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF closed the week at $422.67 (-9.87%) after gapping through a high volume node support level on the volume profile. Now down -21.8% from its peak, the Nasdaq-100 has officially entered a bear market. With price action now drifting into a low-volume node, the risk of further downside accelerates if buyers fail to defend the yearly lows.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The IWM ETF closed the week at $181.19 (-9.61%), extending its decline into its 2022 consolidation range. Already the weakest of the major indexes, small caps now face added pressure as a bearish monthly MACD cross signals further downside risk. Given the sensitivity of this group to inflation and rate expectations, this week’s CPI and PPI prints will have bulls on the edge of their seats.

Earnings

Notable Results

CAG (Conagra Brands Inc)

EPS: $0.51 vs $0.53 est
Rev: $2.84B vs $2.90B est

LW (Lamb Weston Holdings Inc)

EPS: $1.10 vs $0.87 est
Rev: $1.52 vs $1.49B est

AYI (Acuity Inc)

EPS: $3.73 vs $3.70 est
Rev: $1.00B vs $1.03B est

MSM (MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc)

EPS: $0.72 vs $0.72 est
Rev: $891.72M vs $908.30M est

PVH (PVH Corp)

EPS: $3.27 vs $3.21 est
Rev: $2.37B vs $2.33B est

UNF (UniFirst Corp)

EPS: $1.40 vs $1.32 est
Rev: $602.22M vs $602.81M est

NCNO (nCino Inc)

EPS: $0.12 vs $0.19 est
Rev: $141.37M vs $140.81M est

PRGS (Progress Software Corp)

EPS: $1.31 vs $1.06 est
Rev: $238.02M vs $235.64M est

RH (RH)

EPS: $1.58 vs $1.91 est
Rev: $812.41M vs $829.53M est

BB (BlackBerry Ltd)

EPS: $0.03 vs $0.00 est
Rev: $141.70M vs $132.81M

KEN (Kenon Holdings Ltd)

EPS: $0.81
Rev: $237.00M

LNN (Lindsay Corp)

EPS: $2.44 vs $1.89 est
Rev: $187.06M vs $177.38M

SGML (Sigma Lithium Corp)

EPS: $(0.08) vs $0.06 est
Rev: $47.34M vs $77.16M

PENG (Penguin Solutions, Inc.)

EPS: $0.52 vs $0.38 est
Rev: $365.52M vs $344.66M

RDUS (Radius Health Inc)

EPS: $(0.99) vs $(1.01)
Rev: $642.51M vs $635.94M

C (Citigroup Inc)

EPS: $1.34 vs $1.22 est
Rev: $19.58B vs $19.47B

NL (NL Industries Inc)

EPS: $0.34 vs $0.21 est
Rev: $38.40M

GES (Guess? Inc)

EPS: $1.48 vs $1.38
Rev: $932.25M vs $907.75M

What’s Happening Now

SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF
Semiconductors led the market selloff this week, with SOXX down 18%, dragged lower by Micron’s 25% drop. New Trump tariffs have resurfaced fears over global chip supply chains, especially the industry’s dependence on Taiwan’s TSMC for advanced manufacturing. Rising geopolitical tensions and potential cost spikes have spooked investors, placing added pressure on an already struggling sector as chipmakers brace for further impact.

MCD McDonalds
When markets drop, the internet jokes about dusting off that McDonald’s resume. But next week, it’s the stock that’s clocking in. MCD is entering its strongest seasonal stretch, closing higher 93% of the time with a +1.91% average gain over the past 15 years. Now retesting its channel breakout near the $300 psychological level, seasonality looks ready to serve up strength right on cue.

RH RH
RH plunged -40% after Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement, marking one of the steepest selloffs in the market since 72% of its products are sourced from Asia, including 35% from Vietnam and 23% from China. CEO Gary Friedman reacted live on the earnings call, expressing his surprise at the announcement. Analysts quickly turned sour, slashing targets, with Citi cutting the deepest, revising its target down -54% to $200/share.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full rundown delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official Trendspider Newsletter!