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03/28/2024 |

Market Update Into April 1st: Q1 2024 Is In The Books

Quarter one of 2024 is officially behind us and indexes are looking stronger than ever, with both the SPY and QQQ closing within earshot of all-time highs for a second quarter in a row! With this impressive close came some important news, including:

Despite the closure of the markets on Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday, traders will be closely monitoring the release of PCE numbers and remarks from Jerome Powell. This anticipation sets the stage for an exciting Monday ahead! Let’s dig into the technical setups observed across the index ETFs.

Quarterly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

This quarter, the SPY ETF put in a huge upside move, closing at $523.07 (+10.06%). After finding support last quarter at the Anchored VWAP from the Q1 2022 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, the price continued to gain but stalled just shy of the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. Additionally, RSI is back above a 70 reading for the first time since the Q1 2022 highs.

This is a quarterly chart of the SPY index.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

Much like the SPY, the QQQ ETF had a very strong quarter, closing at $444.01 (+8.42%) and finding resistance at the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. However, with RSI crossing over the pivotal 70 level, it appears as though the longer-term move could just be getting started.

This is a quarterly chart of the QQQ index.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The small caps had a decent quarter, with the IWM ETF closing at $210.30 (+4.78%). The price found support at the Anchored VWAP from the Q4 2021 high and its next level of resistance lies just above; the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. From a relative strength perspective, this index lags its counterparts by a hair.

This is a quarterly chart of the IWM index.


This is an image of the most important earnings data from this past week.

Notable Results

GME (Gamestop)

  • EPS: $0.22  vs  $0.29 est 
  • SALES: $1.794B  vs  $2.050B est

RH (Restoration Hardware)

  • EPS: $0.72  vs  $1.67 est
  • SALES: $738.26M  vs  $770.48M est

MKC (McCormick & Company)

  • EPS: $0.63  vs  $0.58 est
  • SALES: $1.60B  vs  $1.56B est

DRCT (Direct Digital Holdings)

  • EPS: $0.08  vs  $0.26 est
  • SALES: $41.01M  vs  $65.95M est

CCL (Carnival)

  • EPS: $0.14  vs  $0.16 est 
  • SALES: $5.406B  vs  $5.473B est

CTAS (Cintas Corporation)

  • EPS: $3.84  vs  $3.59 est
  • SALES: $2.406B  vs  $2.386B est

PLBY (Playboy Group)

  • EPS: $0.05  vs  $0.14 est
  • SALES: $39.364M  vs  $32.275M est

WBA (Walgreens Boots Alliance)

  • EPS: $1.20  vs  $0.82 est
  • SALES: $37.05B  vs  $35.86B est

What’s Happening Now

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

When we refine the seasonality data to focus exclusively on election years, the Nasdaq 100’s April win rate dips to 33%, suggesting we may see a pullback in the broader market before the real summer rally.

This is an image of the seasonality chart discussed in the above copy.

RDDT (Reddit)

Reddit’s shares soared over 59% after their IPO, with insiders quickly capitalizing on the surge. CEO Steve Hoffman sold 500,000 shares, while COO Jennifer Wong offloaded 514,000 shares amidst the newfound access to liquidity.

This is an image of the insider trades discussed in the above copy.

HD (Home Depot)

Home Depot plans to acquire SRS Distribution for $18.25 billion, including net debt, with the expectation of lower GAAP EPS but boosted cash EPS in the first year. HD also believes this addition brings their total addressable above ~$1 trillion.

This is a seasonality chart of Home Depot which shows April as its strongest performing month historically.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter! We hope you all have a very happy Easter holiday!