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04/12/2024 |

Market Update Into April 15th: Indexes On Thin Ice

Last week, we noted the clear bearish divergence that’s been forming since late last year, and it seems this week that the cracks are widening further. As the narrative around the potential for rate cuts continues to deteriorate, so does the market. Now, the indexes are on thin ice, with two of the three majors closing at multi-week lows. In other news;

How long this pain will last is yet to be seen, so let’s get straight to the charts and see how everything looks going into next week.

Weekly Analysis

SPY (SPDR S&P 500)

After several weeks of holding above the year-to-date point of control, the SPY ETF closed this week well below it, at $510.85 (-1.46%). If the price is to continue to fall in the weeks to come, bulls will be keeping a close eye on the late February gap which aligns with the year-to-date anchored VWAP.

This is a daily chart of the SPY index.

QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust)

The QQQ ETF managed to hold it together a bit better than its counterparts this week, closing at $438.27 (-0.50%), just above the year-to-date point of control. If that level is to fail, the February gap below could be a target.

This is a daily chart of the QQQ index.

IWM (iShares Russell 2000)

The small caps struggled the most this week, closing below their year-to-date anchored VWAP and ending the week at $198.69 (-2.82%). Now that a new daily low has been made, it is possible this move could be exhausted, but if this downside move continues next week, the year-to-date point of control could come into play.

This is a daily chart of the IWM index.

Earnings

This is an image of all the important earnings data from the past week, listed below.

Notable Results

TLRY (Tilray)

  • EPS: $(0.00) vs  $(0.05) est 
  • SALES: $188.34M  vs  $198.50M est

AEHR (Aehr Test Systems)

  • EPS: $(0.03)  vs  $(0.04) est
  • SALES: $7.600M  vs  $7.609M est

DAL (Delta Airlines)

  • EPS: $0.45  vs  $0.36 est
  • SALES: $13.75B  vs  $12.57B est

FAST (Fastenal)

  • EPS: $0.52  vs  $0.53 est
  • SALES: $1.90B  vs  $1.91B est

STZ (Constellation Brands)

  • EPS: $2.26 vs  $2.08 est 
  • SALES: $2.14B  vs  $2.10B est

JPM (JP Morgan Chase)

  • EPS: $4.44  vs  $4.15 est
  • SALES: $49.10B  vs  $41.84B est

WFC (Wells Fargo)

  • EPS: $1.20  vs  $1.09 est
  • SALES: $20.86B  vs  $20.20B est

C (Citigroup)

  • EPS: $1.58  vs  $1.20 est
  • SALES: $21.104B  vs  $20.393B est

What’s Happening Now

LULU (Lululemon)

Late shorts beware; while stalling Q4 sales have resulted in a dramatic post-earnings selloff for this retail darling, the price is currently trying to find a footing at the anchored VWAP from the Covid low and seasonality shows the best performing week of the year has arrived.

This is a weekly seasonality chart of LULU.

DAL (Delta Airlines)

With the news of a better-than-expected double-beat earnings report and a sizable debt repayment plan in place, it’s not a surprise to the street celebrating Delta with a slew of new upgrades this week. Deutsche Bank is particularly bullish, increasing their 12-month target to $60/share, a 26% upside to the current price.

This is an image of the analyst upgrades that came in for Delta Airlines this week.

QQQ (Nasdaq 100)

In 2024, a clear trend has begun to take shape for the tech index. Early-week dip buyers continue to be rewarded with end-of-week strength. We saw the Thursday strength repeated this week, but will this same performance continue throughout Q2?

This is a daily seasonality chart of the QQQ ETF.

Believe it or not, this is just a fraction of what happened in the markets this week. For a full run down delivered straight to your inbox every weekend, sign up for The Official TrendSpider Newsletter! We hope you all have a very happy Easter holiday!