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10/26/2022 |

Cestrian Capital Research Presents: Turns Out Growth Is Not Dead

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Turns Out Growth Is Not Dead

Folks, a short note for you today. We’re always happy to take our brickbats where due, the better to take a victory lap when the occasion demands it. Today in our Cestrian Tech Select Newsletter we had a very quick win indeed – and as always our TrendSpider charts helped make it happen.

Tenable (TENB) is a little-known cybersecurity software company. You can see from TrendSpider’s indicator, Retail Trading as a Percentage of Volume, that hardly anyone outside Big Money follows this thing. That’s a shame, because (1) the importance of cybersecurity is only going up, (2) at a time when growth companies aren’t growing so fast – you may have noticed a little ripple in the ocean today brought to you by the letters G, O, O, G, M, S, F and T – this one is growing just fine, and, (3) when the kid at the bus stop is still whining about unprofitable tech even though he and all his FinTwit buddies don’t know the difference between EPS and cashflow nor why it matters, this thing is a positive cash gusher.

TENB hit the market in 2019, hit the deck in March 2020 like everything else, but unlike everything else it kept on moving up through year-end 2021 and didn’t peak until Q2 2022. Here’s the chart on the weekly. After the Wave 1 peak came the inevitable crash and burn, bottoming earlier this month between the 61.8% and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of that big move up.

You can open a full-page version of this chart, here.

This is an image of the weekly chart of TENB with a Fibonacci sequence and an Elliot wave pattern.

Heading into earnings yesterday we rated the stock at Accumulate, ie. buy slowly and steadily in anticipation of a potential move up.

Earnings were awesome and, reader, the stock did yea verily move up. But not before smart folks reading our stuff could have bought already.

We sent our Tech Select note on the stock’s earnings right before the open today. And if you look at this ten-minute interval chart, the stock could be bought at the open – when there was literally no volume! – as the volume by price indicator shows you, this stock was the Unknown Soldier of cybersecurity at the open – and you could have made bank. (Full page version of this chart is here).

This response from one of our readers suggested many did.

The best content in Cestrian Tech Select is behind the paywall. It’s not an expensive service – the rack rate is $149/yr right now, rising to $199/yr on 1 November. But as a TrendSpider user if you’d like to join up we have a special offer only for readers of this blog – you can join for just $49 for your first year – that’s 67% off today’s rack rate and 75% off the 1 November rack rate. All you have to do is join in October. You can click HERE to sign up with this huge discount.

Once you’re in, head to our note on Tenable, which you’ll find on the landing page. You can see our long-run price targets and risk management ideas. We think it has plenty in the tank still.

Thanks as always to Dan, Jason and David at TrendSpider for the opportunity to work with the company here. We love the tools on offer at TrendSpider and even more than that we love the commitment to continuous improvement.

And thanks to you for reading our work!

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc – 26 October 2022

For more great free content from Cestrian Capital Research, head to our website.

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note’s date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.